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au ng @athein1
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FL EV update 7:24 pm 11/5 --- "souls to the polls" data is in. D lead now at 24689. When panhandle data comes in from today + contd absentees statewide, I conservatively estimate D lead to be at 30k or less, as mentioned last night. As long as Rs go vote, they win, hands down
For more of what to expect, pls see my thread from last night.
Sorry about the wrong table. Here's the correct one.
Here are updated table and charts
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FL EV update 7:30 am, 11/6/18 (ED) --- I'm pleasantly surprised. D lead has actually gone down by 2k to 22353. 2 days ago i conservatively said it might reach 30k. The reason for this is very reassuring for Rs, which is VBM actually improved since yesterday, contd.....
contd. In '16, presumably due to VBMs, Ds gained 8.4k on the last day. VBM actually netted 449 for Rs since yest. This is similar to the overall trend where Rs outperforming '16 by 50-70k on each day of EV. It ends with an exclamation point of 74k better for R since '16. contd
contd -- In terms of percentages, Rs are at 82.44% of '16 EV whild Ds at 80.26. All this improvement, I believe, is suggestive of enthusiasm advantage for Rs, opposite of what MSM has been claiming and wishing. Rs must GO VOTE and I'm sure they will. Chalk FL up for an R win
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1/ State of the Midterms ---- Mere hours to go before what would become one of the most participated and most consequential midterms ever. Here are my observations. There aren’t that many MSM polls.
2/ Whatever polls they have, half or so are for lopsided blue ones like NY sen., CT sen or CA sen where 2 no R is running. The MSM rhetoric also is beginning to hedge such as thedailybeast.com/democrats-pond…

theguardian.com/us-news/2018/n…

And

politico.com/story/2018/11/…
3/ MSM has been trying to influence the election more blatantly than ever. They say Ds have enthusiasm edge. The voters are getting smarter though. Early voting data refutes MSM’s claims. They then said “Oh, we can’t compare to ‘16.
Read 7 tweets
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1/ FL EV update 23:05 EST 11/4 --- Same day in '16. Dems netted 66k. It seems that they might not get that much this year, but it'll be close. @THEMattDanner spreadsheet estimates 22k R lead. I'll be conservative and make my guess at 30k D lead by Tue morning.
2/ That was the high end of my estimates from earlier today. The impact of Monday limited poll openings in panhandle would be minimal because those are all small counties and some aren't even that red.
3/ Anyway, even at 30k D lead, Rs will outperform their '16 selves by 66k. In '16, Ds led by 96k on ED morning yet Trump won by 113k. Here is the graph with my estimate for 1 day before ED. I'll change/update it when the real data from official site comes in.
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