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Noah Smith @Noahpinion
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Have you ever seen an article or paper claiming that "X number of jobs are at risk of automation"?

Well, the truth is, nobody really knows.

In fact, no one even knows what it means for a job to be "at risk" of automation!

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
First of all, what does it even mean for a job to be lost to automation?

It's not even well-defined.
Second of all, how do these papers actually arrive at those numbers?

Basically, they ask engineers and scientists.

But do engineers and scientists really know???
Third, just because a TASK can be automated doesn't mean a JOB will be lost.

In fact, automating some of your job tasks might actually mean you get paid more.
Fourth, these studies can't say anything about what happens to the job market as a whole, as a result of automation.
Actually knowing how automation will affect your labor market opportunities and risks, and those of the country as a whole, is a MUCH MUCH harder task.
To sum up:

Dystopia is where robots take half of your jobs.

Utopia is where robots take half of your job.

(end)
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