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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Awesome Michael Mauboussin quote On DCF vs ratios. He's an engineer with words - always precise. valuewalk.com/wp-content/upl… Quote reminder H/T by Jake Cahan
If you have not read all of the Michael Mauboussin essays at these links what the heck are you reading? google.com/amp/s/hurrican…
"Popular multiples, including P/E and EV/EBITDA have a number of limitations but the main one is that they fail to account for capital intensity—be it working capital, capital expenditures, or acquisitions." Michael Mauboussin google.com/amp/s/www.forb…
"Some investors swear off the DCF model because of its myriad assumptions. Yet they readily embrace an approach that packs all of those same assumptions, without any transparency, into a single number: the multiple. Multiples are not valuation." www3.nd.edu/~scorwin/fin70…
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Reminder. The UK has 66,000,000 people living in it. You only need 5,000 for a survey with a very strong confidence. Survation and C4 polled over 20,000.

What that means is you can hate the result of the survey all you like, but the methodology is definitely robust. #c4Brexit
Here’s the full underlying data from the C4 Survation poll on Brexit that was unveiled on the debate this evening...
survation.com/wp-content/upl…
Here’s a sample size calculator so that you can verify what size survey sample you need to get a particular accuracy. You will see that 20,000 people surveyed gives a very small margin of error.
surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
Read 5 tweets
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@RepMarkMeadows We will discuss the following article, knowing what we know now.

independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
@RepMarkMeadows It sure sounds like this is referring to George, and it is highly likely there are recordings. We should hear those recordings.

George wasn’t meeting with Russians, he was meeting with Western Intel assets.
@RepMarkMeadows This entire passage is incorrect.

Trump associates were intentionally targeted and there was no five eyes Intel.
Read 201 tweets
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#CastleLock
You must remember that the secret to all of this is not to be afraid of fear. When you can really allow yourself to be afraid, and you don't resist the experience of fear, you are truly beginning to master fear.
#WWG1WGA
#PatriotsFight
The stage is set
Actors are a running to the dark corners like roaches in the light
The ones that are the loudest are the main characters as no one can be that deceived
It's raining #TheRainMakers
Here comes the PAIN! #PatriotsFight
God's in Control
#WWG1WGA #KAG #GreatAwakening
Thread by @_VachelLindsay_
1. I have no doubt that Obama will be indicted and found guilty of at least THREE major felonies, just from his central involvement in the framing of Donald J Trump
@threadreaderapp #ObamaGate #MAGA #WWG1WGA #QAnon #LockThemUp
threadreaderapp.com/thread/9987571…
Read 139 tweets
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Reminder: Obama himself was grossly negligent in handling classified information when he knowingly communicated w/Clinton over a non-government, non-secure e-mail system. Any possibility of prosecuting Clinton was tanked by Obama’s conflict of interest. nationalreview.com/article/440380…
When the FBI interviewed Abedin they showed her an email b/t Clinton & Obama (who was using his alias) and asked Abedin if she recognized the alias. She didn't, yet FBI agents then told her that the alias was Obama's. For the agents to do this ran afoul of investigative protocol.
The point of an FBI interview is for the interviewee to provide information to the investigators, not the other way around. If agents give information to potential witnesses, the government gets accused of trumping up the case. Yet, they did exactly this during the Huma interview
Read 5 tweets
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Reminder: Jeff Flake's reelection problems were not just about his troubles inside the GOP. His general-elect polling has been terrible. 1/
Recent public polls have shown him at 40% or under in the general. That's not a good position for an incumbent. 2/
Here's a @ppppolls poll from *March 2016* that showed him at 38% in the general: publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Read 8 tweets
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10/29/2010
Gardening for Strangers in Tokyo
By Jared Braiterman
huffingtonpost.com/jared-braiterm…
Daily life in Tokyo is remarkable for its small streets where pedestrians and bicyclists have priority over cars.
Streets can kill cities:Third World beware: Guidelines for street design in Third World cities
Donald Appleyard
1983
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 218 tweets

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