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Jonathan Allen @jonallendc
, 25 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Election thread starts here:

President Trump made a good bet that firing up his base, which intersects with the pre-existing Republican Party, was the best path for boosting Senate candidates in deep red states. BUT 1/x
the Senate seats Republicans picked up were always tough holds for Democrats and they actually won by smaller margins than Trump did in those states (in some cases much smaller margins). Republicans didn't even play in several Dem-held seats that should have been competitive. 2/x
Look, for example, at Missouri, where Trump won by 19 points, and Hawley won by 6 points, or North Dakota, where Trump won by 36 points and Cramer won by 11 points. 3/x
What should worry Trump more than anything is that Republicans lost Senate AND gubernatorial races in the three states that were the keys to his electoral college majority -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. 4/x
In Pennsylvania, Democratic governor Wolf won re-election by 17 points and Sen. Casey won by 13 points against one of Trump's favorite candidates — Lou Barletta — in a state Trump campaigned in repeatedly. 5/x
In Michigan, Democrats won the governorship by more than 8 points, and Stabenow won re-election by more than 5 points. 6/x
In Wisconsin, Republicans were non-competitive against Tammy Baldwin, who is no less liberal than Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. And Democrats won the governorship by a whisker -- an office they've held for all of four years since 1987. 1987. 1987. 7/x
That doesn't mean that Trump can't win those states in 2020, but it does mean that it would be political malpractice if his team doesn't start figuring out a fix for the Republican problems there RIGHT NOW. Similarly, Democrats have to figure out how to solidify themselves. 8/x
Let's take a look at some of the Republican-leaning states where Republicans won. Mike DeWine took Ohio by 4+ points, about two-thirds of Democrat Sherrod Brown's margin in the Senate race. Trump won Ohio by more than 8 points. 9/x
In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds hung on by 3 points in a state Trump won by nearly 10 points. It was a bloodbath for Republicans at the House level, where Democrats now control three of the four House seats and didn't miss a fourth by a ton. 9/x
In Georgia, Brian Kemp outpaced Stacey Abrams, but the margin was small -- about two points. In Texas, a state Trump won by nine points, there was good news at the gubernatorial level -- Gregg Abbott hit double digits -- but Ted Cruz won by less than 3 points. 10/x
In the House, GOP picked up, by my count, two seats (call me on it if I'm missing any). and Democrats are poised to pick up more than 30. That's a wave (a flip and almost all in one direction) 11/x
More important, it wasn't limited to a type of district or a certain region. Sure, you can say "suburban," but there are a lot of different types of suburbs. They include wealthy New York bedroom communities, Oklahoma City suburbs and heavily Hispanic areas of TX, FL & CA 12/x
It's hard to find a silver lining for Republicans in the House other than that they didn't lose more — and there are still a number of outstanding districts to come in. In order to win a majority, Democrats had to find ways to win in districts that were Republican bastions 13/x
Because the result was expected, it's easy to forget that Mikie Sherill just won a seat in New Jersey that Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen had represented since 1995. His predecessor, a Republican, had held it since 1985. 14/x
The Oklahoma City district, represented by Mickey Edwards, Ernie Istook, Mary Fallin and James Lankford in the past, has been in GOP hands since John Jarman switched parties in 1975. 15/x
Illinois' 6th District in the northwest Chicago suburbs, has been represented by a Republican since before I was born -- mostly by Henry Hyde -- and I'm 43. Pete Roskam lost there last night by almost six points. 16/x
Pete Sessions went down in Texas-32 last night in the Dallas suburbs, where he's been a fixture since 1996. And so on and so on. 17/x
Wait ... one more ... Dave Brat lost in the Richmond-based district that Republicans have held since Tom Bliley was first elected to Congress in 1980. This is not a typical suburban swing district. It's the old South or maybe the new South. But it ain't Alexandria. 18/x
All of this is to say that the American political landscape changed a little bit last night. It wasn't a massive sea change that broke the fever of division and partisanship. But it did go mostly in one direction. 19/x
Republicans are rightly relieved that it wasn't worse for them. But try to find a place on the map where they expanded their footprint. It's hard. Then look at where Democrats expanded their footprint. It's a lot easier. 20/x
History suggests that the likely outcome of this midterm would be a recession from the strength of the president's party in the last election, and that's what happened. But it didn't have to be the outcome. 21/x
If you cut through the spin, this was a pretty decisive victory for Democrats. They picked up a lever of power at the federal level, won some important governorships and still have a filibuster in the Senate -- and Rs started this cycle thinking about getting to 60. 22/x
This will become more apparent as time goes on. But even in Trump's tweets about the House this morning, it's abundantly clear, he knows what he lost last night. The question is whether he'll figure out how to win it back in two years. 23/x
The End. 24/24
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