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Sam Lowe @SamuelMarcLowe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The upper estimates of a UK trade deal with the US: GDP 0.35% higher by 2027.

The modelling assumes 100% tariff reduction and 25% of non-tariff barriers removed (32.5% in business/ICT, chemicals and cars).

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Most of the economic gains estimated to come for non-tariff barrier (NTB) reduction.

As this was a TTIP estimate, it also assumes these barriers are reduced across the entire EU.

Gains of UK-US FTA now likely to be lower or net-negative b'cos deep US FTA requires hard Brexit.
So a UK-US FTA is largely a political objective, not an economic one. But this is true of most FTAs, which generally do little to increase GDP.
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More from @SamuelMarcLowe see all

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I often find myself thinking about the claim that UK food prices will fall post-Brexit so long as the UK removes the existing EU tariffs on food imports (which can be quite high) either unilaterally or via new free trade agreements.

I'm sceptical, for a few reasons.
The first being that vast majority of our imported food comes from EU. Even if we unilaterally dropped tariffs on all imported food, we would still import a lot of food from the EU. EU food will be more expensive than now, if only because of new bureaucracy (ignoring tariffs).
Second, currency.

The IFS estimate that unilateral tariff removal could reduce household prices about 0.7–1.2%. This benefit has already been negated by a ~2% depreciation in sterling post-referendum.

ifs.org.uk/uploads/public…
Read 8 tweets
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Day 4 without a working boiler. I am starting to get cold.
Fair point.
Fixed! And I now have the number of a great gas engineer for any North Londoners in need. (Diagnosed and fixed it in 30 minutes compared to a 3 hour failed attempt by cowboys on NY eve).
Read 4 tweets
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Tariffs not biggest issue for British food exporters to EU, bigger issue is delays at the border and additional bureaucracy.

For example, milk for human consumption must enter EU via inspection post where 100% shipments subject to identity & doc checks; 50% physical inspection.
Because twitter, I’ve had a few “well that’s not a problem because we don’t export much milk” responses despite me saying it was just an example.

Here’s a product by product breakdown of checks and frequency UK products of animal origin would face if no deal.
The physical inspection rate can be reduced if the UK and EU reach an equivalence arrangement but this doesn’t remove need for document and identity checks nor for products to enter EU via a veterinary border inspection post. Anyway, it’s all in here: apha.defra.gov.uk/documents/bip/…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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At Chequers @theresa_may, alongside @POTUS, says she thanked him for expelling 60 intelligence officers from #Russia following Salisbury nerve agent incident.
Will pursue a US-UK free trade agreement following #Brexit, adds @theresa_may.
US and UK in agreement on how to deal with #DPRK and #Iran and need for increased @NATO defense spending, declares @theresa_may.
Read 40 tweets
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My thoughts on #Trump's bombshell interview w/ The Sun: He puts his finger at inconvenient truth: tradeoff between regulatory alignment w/ EU post-Brexit and regulatory alignment w/ US as part of US-UK #trade deal. But he goes about it in undiplomatic way that isn't helpful.
Trump's explosive interview calling US-UK trade deal off is likely part of negotiation tactic. Throw UK off balance and then extract more concessions in future negotiations.
Still a lot more on trade for T May to talk to Trump about: US steel and aluminium tariffs and looming tariffs on cars and automotive imports. T May should position herself as bridge between US and EU.
Read 3 tweets
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Next week in #UK @POTUS will have dinner with @theresa_may and business leaders, according to @10DowningStreet.
During the #UK visit @POTUS will also hold talks with @theresa_may at her manor house and meet Queen Elizabeth at Windsor Castle, according to @10DowningStreet.
Also according to @10DowningStreet, @POTUS will make a "private visit" to #Scotland.
Read 15 tweets
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets

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