What's more important than a wave? Starting to turn a tide. @databyler's gif from January shows the long history of Dems' rural/blue-collar suburb decay in eg SWPA. It's in this context that last week's results shd be read
2016 looked like a radical acceleration of this rural/blue collar suburb rejection of Dems across the midwest (read whole piece from @Dchinni ) americancommunities.org/the-places-to-… 
In SWPA non-metro counties on Nov 9 2016 the trend lines looked clear. Yellow is senate, red presidential. GOP vote share accelerating with no end in sight
But then people voted in 2018. And there's a new story to be told
That's the pattern nationwide, as @yghitza shows
Read more here andrewgelman.com/2018/11/10/201…
Claims of a "growing chasm" that ignore this shift in trends are just sloppy. You wouldn't know it fr the graphic below, but going into last week Dems held only 30 rural/rural-suburban seats. 2018's 33 shows rebuilding, not collapse citylab.com/equity/2018/10… businessinsider.com/midterm-electi…
"I have now noticed a problem that is not yet fixed" ≠ "This problem is getting worse." Media narrative to the contrary, the Dems' rural/blue collar suburban deficit is the former and not the latter. Fatalism not needed: the question to be asked is what's bringing people back
Maybe head back to ctral PA (& Kansas, & Missouri, &...) but this time talk to teachers and home healthcare workers—plus the waitress in that diner rather than just the retired men she's serving? [graph @b_schaffner]
Another day another eye-opening analysis from @yghitza Suggests the story of rural rebound 2018 is not ancestral Dems returning but their *grandchildren* turning: swinging away from Trump GOP at the same rapid rate as suburban millenials young and mid-aged medium.com/@yghitza_48326…
These national # s (built of polls + precinct results & more) are fully consistent with geographic pattern of movement towards Trump and now shift away in SWPA vote totals (counties ordered by pop. density, most rural @ right)
So go find the coalminer's granddaughter. Ask her about bad bosses and handsy customers and kids' medical bills. You may find America 2018 less divided than you've been told.
Was going to drop this thread but keep seeing broad brush fatalism that evidence just doesn't support. Everything about last week's results suggests both-and can work: no need to frame as either-or. Why create false trade-offs? medium.com/s/jessica-vale…
You could not get these swings in rural and suburbs without winning over sizeable # s of white women in their 20s and 30s there who either voted for Trump or declined to vote against him. In stark contrast to rock-like stability of GOP among 45-64 yr olds in suburbs&rural alike
Why assume working-class white women under 40 are perpetual believers in a racialized gender traditionalism that delivers precious few actual protections to them—when their own voting suggests they are not?
white women without 4-year degrees shifted their vote away from the GOP by the same 13 pts as college educated women: and outnumbered them by 60%, making up a full quarter of midterm voters nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opi…
