There may be a draft Withdrawal Agreement, but there is not yet certainty about the Brexit outcome. Which is a nice cue for saying there's still a need for the Brexit Probability tracker, especially if, like @ChrisMasonBBC, you don't have the foggiest idea what will happen next
Well, we now put a deal at 60%, though we can't quite work out how to describe it in the blind Brexit / Customs union spectrum, so split between them. But no deal becomes less likely, just 15%. If deal is voted down, EEA and referendum are higher possibilities 
And the story of the last few months really is how nobody with an alternative to a deal has really sustained a strong case - though the referendum and EEA supporters have done a lot better than the no-deal supporters
