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Ben Casselman @bencasselman
, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Republicans thought their tax cut would help save them in the midterms. Instead, it looks like capping the SALT deduction hurt them in key races.
@jimtankersley
nytimes.com/2018/11/19/us/…
According to several months' worth of data from @SurveyMonkey, the tax law was significantly less popular in ZIP codes where a large share of people took the SALT deduction. That's true even after controlling for party, education, income, etc.
nytimes.com/2018/11/19/us/…
And people in high-SALT areas were significantly more likely to say they planned to vote for Dems in the midterms. Not a huge effect, and hard to separate GOP struggles in high-SALT areas from suburban struggles more generally. But effect appears real.
(Nerd note: We're working with individual-level data here. So we have an easier time isolating SALT impact than if we were just working with district-level aggregates.)
Meanwhile, there's no evidence Republicans did better in places that got a larger tax cut. So TCJA hurt them in SALT-y areas, but didn't help them in places that disproportionately benefited from the law.
How badly did GOP do in SALT country? In the 20 GOP-held districts with the highest share of residents taking the deduction, Republicans lost 10.
nytimes.com/2018/11/19/us/…
cc @NateSilver538, who was asking about this last week.
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Flying back from #ASSA2019 feels different than most years. Usually, I’m full of energy about all the innovative research I’ve seen and fascinating conversations I’ve had.
This year, I spent nearly the whole time talking to women and people of color about their experiences in economics. I heard some harrowing tales, and dozens of other tales of more minor slights, comments and actions that together made women question whether they belonged.
And I heard about systemic problems that create barriers at every stage of the profession, from undergraduate through tenure. Of course, you could see evidence of that just looking around the demographics of the conference.
Read 7 tweets
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U.S. employers added 155k jobs in November, the 98th straight month of growth. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, a multi-decade low. #jobsday
nytimes.com/2018/12/07/bus…
Average earnings up 6 cents/hour, 3.1% over the past year. That's the same year-over-year rate as last month, when wage growth was supposedly artificially inflated by hurricane effects.
October's strong number was revised down a bit, but September up very slightly. Net downward revision of 12k.
Read 18 tweets
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New "differential privacy" policies from @uscensusbureau could mean the end of public-use microdata. Important report from @ipums.
assets.ipums.org/_files/mpc/MPC…
More on what differential privacy could mean for Census data here: nytimes.com/2018/12/05/ups…
"Public-use microdata" is a wonky, snooze-inducing phrase. But the idea is simple: The government makes available anonymous, individual-level responses to many of its major surveys. This is important for a couple reasons.
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

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i'm carb loading to get me through the #midterms.

ok, fine, so i'm carb loading. also, it will help me get through the #midterms.
i guess what i'm trying to say is that carb loading is happening, one way or another.
i plan to make it very difficult for them to deport me as i will be firmly embedded in a rich buttery pie crust.
Read 3 tweets
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THREAD: Here’s every race in 2018 #Midterms where you can vote for weed legalization or against some old asshole blocking legalization. And oh yeah, help save democracy.
In #Michigan, Proposal 18-1 would legalize cannabis including flowers, concentrates and edibles. Plus you can grow 12 plants at home! freep.com/story/opinion/…
In #Missouri, three competing legalization measures are on the ballot. Measure 2 is backed by local grassroots activists. The other two are pretty sketchy. My colleagues at @Leafly break it down in detail. leafly.com/news/politics/…
Read 22 tweets
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NE02, final. Bacon 51, Eastman 42
A good result for Republicans, though not a huge surprise in a lean Rep. district. Still, this could have been a top race and it doesn't look like one.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
As an aside, I believe this is the first race where Republicans have beaten @Redistrict expectations in 12 days, and they only did it by a net-2 points
Washington 8, final. Schrier (D) 46, Rossi (R) 45
America's greatest district posts our second closest result yet, trailing only Kentucky 6
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 74 tweets
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tax policy, tariffs, health premiums rising.
we got trouble, right here in in River City, with a capital T, that stands for Trump.
nytimes.com/2018/04/18/us/…
axios.com/gop-playing-of…
Read 11 tweets
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(THREAD) Many asking how anyone could be unhappy with a tax cut. No matter the size, it's better than nothing, isn't it?
I can clear this up.
It's because people know tax bills are about trade offs. And factoring everything in, they believe this bill makes them worse off.
About 75% of households will receive a tax cut.
Median income, as of Sept 2017, was $59,039.
According to the NYT tax bill calculator, the median household will receive a tax cut of $380.
That's $31.67 per month, $7.31 per week.
2/x
 nytimes.com/interactive/20…
$31.67 per month's not a lot, but it's not nothing either. For households with tight budgets, that could cover some school supplies, a trip to the movies, or a meal.
Not all three. But 1 of them in a month.
3/x
Read 11 tweets

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