Thread by @ColeGarnerBTC

HOW TO SURVIVE THIS /A Thread

1/ Yearlong support at $6K is now strong resistance.

Bulls cling to their last hope that this move down is a Wykoff spring.

I hope they’re right, but I think they're fooling themselves.

2/ Here’s what’s way more likely:

We've just entered the secondary bear market — the institutional accumulation phase of the market cycle.

For a great explanation of secondary bear markets, check out this video by @TrueCrypto28

3/ First we go through capitulation.

Capitulation events are shock and awe for a financial asset -- the ultimate stoploss run.

They are engineered by institutions to shake out weak hands, so they can buy in even higher volume, at even lower prices.

4/ How far down could we go?

The daily chart shows a substantial volume profile gap below $6000.

The next high volume nodes don’t appear until $4400.

I expect the $4400 region to act as strong support.

5/ But there's huge incentive for institutions to drive price as low as possible.

I expect they’ll attempt to run stops to the next support level below $4400, at $3K.

If they managed to breach $4K, buy pressure as we approach $3K should be breathtaking.

6/ I expect any drive below $4K to be violent, and to be violently rejected.

The whole process may appear as a long wick on the daily chart.

When the dust settles, the bottom should be in — I suspect somewhere between $3K and $4K.

7/ So what should you do?

Ultimately, we know it's impossible to predict the exact bottom.

That’s why we always spread our buy orders out in layers.

8/ No fiat or stablecoin left to buy with? That’s ok!

First, I’ll show you how I’ve set up my buy orders.

Then I’ll show you how to profit if you hold BTC, but are out of fiat buying power.

9/ Last time Bitcoin capitulated in 2015, the move came and went in a matter of hours.

Many would-be buyers slept through the bottom.

So if you want to buy, you must place buy orders in advance.

10/ The big question: where should you place your buy orders?

That's a personal decision, based on your own risk management, and your own technical analysis.

I've layered buy orders from $3600-$4800.

11/ It will likely pay to keep the Tether premium in mind:

The best price fills at the very bottom will likely be on non-Tether exchanges.

12/ I recommend spreading your orders across multiple exchanges.

Weird things happen on during moments of extreme volatility, and occasionally orders don’t get filled.

13/ How to profit if you can’t afford to buy?

I’ll share a strategy used by institutional traders on their personal accounts in exactly this kind of situation.

Bitcoin capitulation will cause the altcoin market to hemorrhage in USD value -- and possibly in BTC value too.

14/ Whales will panic-sell alt bags, causing prices on illiquid exchanges to flash crash.

In a flash crash, prices spike *much* lower than most people ever expected they’d go, filling every order on the book.

Then price instantly bounces back to where it started.

15/ Anyone who had the foresight to set unreasonably low bids (stinkbids) reaps instant profit.

After your bids fill you can sell everything back into BTC, or hold onto your insanely great alt entry for the long haul.

16/ Any way you play it, expect a strong bounce after we hit bottom.

The last time Bitcoin capitulated in 2015, we bounced 88% in 12 days.

I’m expecting a similar reaction, and will take profit on leveraged positions at $5K and $5800.

17/ After that? I expect we go sideways.

Institutions will be accumulating at these prices, between $4K - $6K.

And they'll take their sweet time, so stay patient.

18/ Note that the amount of time we go sideways for is very hard to predict.

It could be longer or shorter than the chart below shows.

And when the bull market finally comes around again, you’ll get called lucky for buying the bottom. 😉