1/ BUYING CAPITULATION: A Thread 
2/ Bottoms are reached two ways: through slow grinding sideways price action, or by a high-volume capitulation event.
Capitulation events are engineered by institutions to shake out weak hands, so they can buy in even higher volume, at even lower prices.
Capitulation events are engineered by institutions to shake out weak hands, so they can buy in even higher volume, at even lower prices.
3/ The more profitable the market, the more tempting it is to engineer capitulation.
Hypothesis: Bitcoin's track record of bull runs makes it the ultimate temptation.
It is irresistible to institutional whales as a capitulation target.
Hypothesis: Bitcoin's track record of bull runs makes it the ultimate temptation.
It is irresistible to institutional whales as a capitulation target.
4/ This is good news! Capitulation moves us through the market cycle faster than a slow bleed.
Plus it’s a buying opportunity.
Plus it’s a buying opportunity.
5/ If this plays out, it’s just a matter of time before current support at $5800 is broken.
Beneath that is a substantial volume profile gap.
The next high volume nodes don’t appear until the $4400 region.
Beneath that is a substantial volume profile gap.
The next high volume nodes don’t appear until the $4400 region.
6/ $4400 should act as support, but we might see wicks down as low as $3500.
A drop to the $4000 region would bring us 80% below the December ATH of $20,000.
We would be at roughly the same retracement range as all three previous Bitcoin bear markets.
A drop to the $4000 region would bring us 80% below the December ATH of $20,000.
We would be at roughly the same retracement range as all three previous Bitcoin bear markets.
7/ There’s stronger support farther down at $3000, as price approaches the logarithmic trendline, but I doubt buy pressure will allow price to go that low.
8/ Ultimately, we know its impossible to predict the bottom.
That’s why we always spread our buy orders out in layers.
That’s why we always spread our buy orders out in layers.
9/ If this plays out, Bitcoin will be on sale, but the sale might not last long.
Last time, in 2015, capitulation came and went in a matter of hours. Many would-be buyers slept through the bottom.
So: if you want to buy, place your buy orders in advance.
Last time, in 2015, capitulation came and went in a matter of hours. Many would-be buyers slept through the bottom.
So: if you want to buy, place your buy orders in advance.
10/ The big question: where should I place my buy orders?
That's a personal decision, based on your own risk management, and your own technical analysis.
I've layered buy orders from $3600-$4950.
That's a personal decision, based on your own risk management, and your own technical analysis.
I've layered buy orders from $3600-$4950.
11/ I recommend spreading your orders across multiple exchanges.
Weird things happen on exchanges during moments of extreme volatility, and occasionally orders don’t get filled.
Weird things happen on exchanges during moments of extreme volatility, and occasionally orders don’t get filled.
12/ Also remember: you don’t *have* to try to time the market.
There will be plenty of great buying opportunities during the institutional accumulation period that follows capitulation.
There will be plenty of great buying opportunities during the institutional accumulation period that follows capitulation.
