Thread by @ColeGarnerBTC

CRYPTO PORTFOLIO PARKOUR / A Thread

1/ Critical turning point days in Bitcoin’s market cycle are often marked by record-high trading volume.

Take the last bear market:

The day we hit bottom, in January 2015

That was Bitcoin's second highest volume trading day, *ever*.

Still to this day!

2 / Check out the chart below, of some of the highest volume trading days in BTC history.

3/ Each marks the end of a market cycle stage:

* End of the last bear market

* End of the accumulation period (the bull market breakout)

* End of the bull market (violation of the parabolic advance)

* End of parabolic mean reversion ($6k capitulation)

3/ This is the kind of high volume day I want to see as confirmation that we've bottomed.

We’ve seen a lot of volume recently -- on the very high timeframes, like the monthly chart.

But we haven’t seen it on the daily chart yet.

4/ I’m not saying we *must* bottom on high volume

But until we see it on the daily, I remain skeptical that we’ve bottomed.

And if we haven’t bottomed, then probability is we go lower.

5/ From this vantage point, I think we see $2K. Possibly wicks below $2K.

6/ But it might not be a direct route:

This bear market has shown us a pretty familiar rhythm of bull traps.

We are overdue for the next one.

7/ If you’re an institutional whale,

one more bull trap would be … a nearly irresistible opportunity.

But that doesn’t mean it'll happen.

But if it does happen — a little preparation will pay off in a *huge* way.

8/ The plan is simple and obvious:

If we’re lucky enough to go up —

sell spot $BTC into fiat at strategic levels the whole way up to $6k.

If we make it to $6K, * big if * -- by that point, I will have already sold my entire spot BTC portfolio.

9/ If I’m lucky enough to get to sell,

then I’ll rebuy in layers, beginning around $2500.

I'll focus a lot of firepower on $2250-$1900.

And I'll save a small amount in case we go lower.

10/ What if the bull trap never comes?

Well then…nothing happens.

11/ What if I sell my portfolio, then we double-bottom and none of my orders get filled?

Then I'll accumulate my portfolio back, in the institutional accumulation zone, over the next bunch of months.

I am perfectly happy to do that.

12/ Why does all this matter?

Because *if* we bull trap even as high as $5k

and *if* most of my orders fill on the way down

my math says I'll come close to doubling my portfolio, in BTC value.

How often do you get a low-risk chance like that?

13/ Price action traders talk about how important it is to not predict price.

And they’re right -- if you’re trading price action.

But if you’re actively managing a portfolio of Bitcoin, it absolutely pays to predict price.

14/ That’s my plan for spot. How will I approach this on BitMex testnet?

The best trade of the secondary bear market *isn’t* leverage longing the generational bottom.

The trend is your friend bruh, and the trend is down.

15/ The best trade of the secondary bear market is shorting $6k resistance.

Or anything near it. Especially the first touch.

I'll start filling shorts as low as $4400, because I don’t know how high it’s going to go.

16/ I'll layer my short orders all the way up to $6k (low probability we get that far)

I’m confident resistance will hold, so I’ll enter short *without* a stop-loss

This is something I very rarely do.

17/ I want my shorts to be able to withstand a full-blown bull trap,

so I’ve set my liquidation price above $6,800

I’ll be shorting **low leverage**

(People who try this high-leverage should expect to get liquidated)

18/ If I’m lucky enough to get filled:

I'll take light profits at $3200, and target $2500-2000.

19/ The whole move up could turn out to be a wick, like the Tether FUD in October.

So I’ll have my orders on the exchange.

Same thing goes for your spot sell orders: set them up in advance.

20/ Also: if the bull trap takes the form of a slow grind up towards $6k

and it happens slowly, over a period of weeks,

Then I think we’ll see an April-style alt season.

Your alts could move fast, be ready to take profit quickly.

21/ Also: when price is coming down, and we’re below $3000...

There are going to be more flashcrashes.

22/ I caught two on the last drive down!

That was the second one, when ETH went to $13 for a split-second.

And in the process of catching them, I inadvertently discovered a trick....

a way of catching flashcrashes that I totally wasn’t expecting to uncover.

23/ I won’t tell you what it is. That would be too easy.

But if you read through my feed, into the comments, it's all pretty much spelled out. 😉