1. In a statement saturated with lies, perhaps the biggest one is that in whitewashing Khashoggi’s murder Trump is putting America first. Impunity for the murder of a US resident will only invite further abuse of Americans abroad.
2. Autocrats and warlords now know they can get away with murder (literally) as long as they cater to Trump’s interests. Trump can be bought off one way or another and virtually anyone is for sale for the right price.
3. Now Trump claims that the “price” he is getting for Khashoggi is worth it. Billions of dollars in arms sales, reasonable oil prices, an ally against Iran, and a partnership that supports Israeli interests. A veritable king’s ransom in strategic cooperation.
4. But, as experts have been pointing out for the last two months, these purported benefits are at best exaggerated and in some cases fallacious. Only a fraction of Saudi arms sales will ever materialize, which may not even support new jobs. These sales are nice, not essential.
5. Saudi influence over long-term oil prices continues to decline; it’s not 1973 and the Saudi ability to sustain production at current levels is questionable. The kingdom could spike prices in the short-term, but it’s not in their own interests.
6. By any objective measure, Saudi Arabia under MBS has been a boon for Iran’s regional ambitions. Initiating an ill-considered war in Yemen. Emasculating the pro-Western PM of Lebanon. Undermining any chance of Arab consensus by blockading Qatar.
7. King Salman distanced himself and the kingdom from Trump’s peace plan, seemingly clipping the wings of MBS who was flirting with terms that are expected to favor Israel. Even if MBS regains the upper hand, it’s very unlikely he can “deliver” the Palestinians to an agreement.
8. Of course, Trump is presenting a false choice. Saudi cooperation does not have to depend on giving MBS a pass. While it wouldn’t be easy, the US can hold all involved responsible without rupturing the bilateral relationship. That’s why diplomats exist.
9. So why is Trump doing MBS’s bidding if the strategic rationale for the US is suspect? Is it because he just doesn’t understand and he genuinely believes Khashoggi is an “obstacle” to US interests? Perhaps, at least in part.
10. But it is even more likely that Trump is placing his personal interests above the country’s. He wants continued Saudi financial support for his business empire, which he has publicly touted in the past.
11. And, while the US could ultimately emerge stronger from a Saudi attempt at oil blackmail, it would hurt Americans in the very short term. For a president determined to get re-elected on the strength of the economy, this would be a problem for his personal political interests.
12. If this is right, Trump should have ended his statement not with “America First” but with “Trump First.” There is a lot involved in Trump’s Saudi policy but it has nothing to do with the best interests of the American people. It’s Trump first, last, and everything in between.
