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Jon Worth @jonworth
, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
So now we have a Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, what next?

The "Meaningful Vote", scheduled for 11 December.

#Brexit

1/10
It looks highly likely that May's deal will not be approved, first time at least.

I have summed up what might happen after that in this blog post: jonworth.eu/there-is-a-wit…

I sketch out 7 things that could happen - summaries in this thread.

2/10
OPTION 1️⃣
** Just hold the line **

Wait to see what happens. See if markets crash. See if MPs begin to show remorse. And then make them vote again.

Chances: low. A 2nd vote on the same proposition is ridiculous.

3/10
OPTION 2️⃣
** Send May back to Brussels **

Try to see if the EU would offer something different. But there is no consensus on the UK side what that is. And EU (Juncker) made it clear today 🇪🇺 isn't playing that game.

Chances: cannot see how that works.

4/10
OPTION 3️⃣
** May resigns **

She has worked for 18 months on this deal. Such a setback weakens her credibility even further.

Chances: slim. She's not like that. She genuinely believes in this deal.

5/10
OPTION 4️⃣
** Tories force May out **

ERG might have failed last week to get 48 letters to oust her, but when May's deal fails in Parliament, it could be a different story.

Chances: depends on size of rebellion on meaningful vote, but I can't see how this could be avoided.

6/10
OPTION 5️⃣
** People's Vote **

Popular support for a second referendum is growing, and the idea has some support across party lines. And offers a blocked Commons a way out.

Chances: might take some time to achieve yet. Not going to be achieved right after the vote.

7/10
OPTION 6️⃣
** General Election **

Jeremy Corbyn wants it. But while Tories and the DUP might dislike Theresa May's deal, they definitely do not want this.

Chances: unlikely on its own, but possible in conjunction with another option.

8/10
OPTION 7️⃣
** Something else **

European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 states that the government has to tell Parliament by 21.1.2019 what the way forward is. Ask for an Art 50 extension? Withdraw Art 50 notification?

Chances: options once other routes exhausted.

9/10
So there you are folks. All of this is going to get very tense, and very complicated, within the next three weeks.

Today's deal was the easy bit.

And it's all to play for still!

And a reminder - the detailed version of this is here: jonworth.eu/there-is-a-wit…

10/10
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More from @jonworth see all

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This brilliant put-down by @piris_jc was not only amusing, brutal, and correct...

...but made me get around to writing a blog post I've been meaning to write for ages.
Twitter may have its problems as a social network, and its fair share of detractors, but as a means to understand what is going on with #Brexit there is nothing like it.

But I am followed by the guy who wrote part of the Treaty of Lisbon! If you're an 🇪🇺 nerd, isn't that 😎?
Here is the blog post:
jonworth.eu/in-praise-of-t…

It's part thank you to those I have learned from in the past couple of years, and then also a kind of who-to-follow.
Read 10 tweets
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Before this week's #Brexit shenanigans, I said this:

"With May as Prime Minister there can be no Brexit deal"

I stand by that statement

I see no way that the #EUCO - ongoing as I write this thread - can give May anything that'll appease the Brexit hard liners in her party

🇪🇺 is not going to make the backstop time limited or allow 🇬🇧 to unilaterally withdraw it. So the deal on the table is essentially unchanged
The Tories reaching across the political divide to Labour still looks like a ridiculously long shot as well:
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Read 16 tweets
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In less than a fortnight the Commons is likely to reject May's Brexit in the Meaningful Vote.

When it does, the #PeoplesVote (a 2nd referendum) could yet be an appealing way forward.

#Brexit
I'm not much of a fan of referendums, but I see no way to stop #Brexit without a further vote. There are numerous practical barriers to holding a further vote, all of them surmountable.

BUT the main question is this:
*** How could such a vote result in a REMAIN vote? ***
I've sketched out 6 things that would have to happen were Remain to triumph in this blog post:
jonworth.eu/how-to-make-su…

A summary of the points is in this thread.
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Ahead of of #PMQs, here's what is actually happening with #Brexit at the moment (thread):
Theresa May's government has become the first in history to be held in "contempt of parliament" after refusing to release the full legal advice offered on the Brexit divorce deal po.st/WgEww8
MPs have won the right to have a "meaningful vote" on Brexit plans if the PM's withdrawal agreement is defeated in parliament next week po.st/zc58Dr
Read 7 tweets
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(1 of 7) Tidbits on Brexit: out of the frying pan, into the fire. EU leaders have approved the text of the Brexit withdrawal agreement and political declaration. The latter is non-binding and outlines both sides’ aspirations for the long-term relationship.
(2 of 7) The former sets the terms of the transition period between Brexit day in March 2019 and the end of 2020, at which point there will be a deal on the future relationship, a one- or two-year extension of the transition period, or the dreaded backstop will kick in.
(3 of 7) The approval process was not without drama. The main obstacle to unanimous support had been Gibraltar.
Read 7 tweets
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1) Still working on a detailed annotation of the whole political declaration, but in short, on internal security issues:
a) withdrawal agreement and political declaration is better than no deal Brexit, since it would avoid a cut off in March, keep links in the transition period;
2 b) but political declaration very vague and lacks definite commitment to negotiate after that. Clearer commitment for Commission to work on an adequacy decision for transfer of personal data to the UK, which is important for digital industry too. No deal = no adequacy decision
3 Overall, withdrawal agreement the same as Remain during the transition period, but an unquantifiable drop in security cooperation after that.

No deal significantly worse than Remain/WA during the transition period; much worse than Remain/ somewhat worse than PD after that. //
Read 3 tweets
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Today, @NIESRorg put out the first of many economic assessments on the Brexit withdrawal agreement and political declaration.

ft.com/content/a60a94…
It’s vague in places because the deal is vague. The big assumptions

1. There would be a minor bounce if U.K. stayed in durably
2. Canada style deal (if NI sorted) costs £1,100 a year per person by about 2030 (see pic)
3. Backstop costs £700 because customs union an advantage
As per pic. The big assumption @NIESRorg make is that Brexit harms services productivity. This is reasonable but the least well evidences part of the research.

Some will also question the scale of the trade losses (up to 46%). That is less important though in generating losses
Read 5 tweets
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I’m a fan of @JustineGreening - she was my minister at DFID. What she is talking about here though is a vote between Brexit options, which is not, I’m afraid, viable.

We have to be honest that the only choice is between what May brings (or no deal) & revoking Art50. 1/
Firstly, EU27 will have no interest in renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, or in agreeing the extension to A50 necessary for a referendum that could result in a renegotiation, and creates more, not less uncertainty. 2/
So there’s no Chequers (it won’t be Chequers, why do people keep talking about Chequers?) vs EEA, or Canada+ vs Chequers or any other form of Brexit vs form of Brexit option available. 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Brexit section of Tusk letter to EU leaders ahead of Salzburg meeting: "we should reconfirm the need for a legally operational backstop on Ireland"
While the EU has been working to dedramatise the backstop, its main principle - a legally operational backstop that can be used if and until there is no other solution - remains intact, and is very unlikely to change
Over the past 7 months, the UK has basically not engaged on the backstop. Theories as to why, are most welcome. Let the EU do all the work, and accept the backstop on transfer deadline day? Hope the 27 blink? Last minute UK proposal? Something else?
Read 6 tweets

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