So now we have a Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, what next?
The "Meaningful Vote", scheduled for 11 December.
#Brexit
1/10
The "Meaningful Vote", scheduled for 11 December.
#Brexit
1/10
It looks highly likely that May's deal will not be approved, first time at least.
I have summed up what might happen after that in this blog post: jonworth.eu/there-is-a-wit…
I sketch out 7 things that could happen - summaries in this thread.
2/10
I have summed up what might happen after that in this blog post: jonworth.eu/there-is-a-wit…
I sketch out 7 things that could happen - summaries in this thread.
2/10
OPTION 1️⃣
** Just hold the line **
Wait to see what happens. See if markets crash. See if MPs begin to show remorse. And then make them vote again.
Chances: low. A 2nd vote on the same proposition is ridiculous.
3/10
** Just hold the line **
Wait to see what happens. See if markets crash. See if MPs begin to show remorse. And then make them vote again.
Chances: low. A 2nd vote on the same proposition is ridiculous.
3/10
OPTION 2️⃣
** Send May back to Brussels **
Try to see if the EU would offer something different. But there is no consensus on the UK side what that is. And EU (Juncker) made it clear today 🇪🇺 isn't playing that game.
Chances: cannot see how that works.
4/10
** Send May back to Brussels **
Try to see if the EU would offer something different. But there is no consensus on the UK side what that is. And EU (Juncker) made it clear today 🇪🇺 isn't playing that game.
Chances: cannot see how that works.
4/10
OPTION 3️⃣
** May resigns **
She has worked for 18 months on this deal. Such a setback weakens her credibility even further.
Chances: slim. She's not like that. She genuinely believes in this deal.
5/10
** May resigns **
She has worked for 18 months on this deal. Such a setback weakens her credibility even further.
Chances: slim. She's not like that. She genuinely believes in this deal.
5/10
OPTION 4️⃣
** Tories force May out **
ERG might have failed last week to get 48 letters to oust her, but when May's deal fails in Parliament, it could be a different story.
Chances: depends on size of rebellion on meaningful vote, but I can't see how this could be avoided.
6/10
** Tories force May out **
ERG might have failed last week to get 48 letters to oust her, but when May's deal fails in Parliament, it could be a different story.
Chances: depends on size of rebellion on meaningful vote, but I can't see how this could be avoided.
6/10
OPTION 5️⃣
** People's Vote **
Popular support for a second referendum is growing, and the idea has some support across party lines. And offers a blocked Commons a way out.
Chances: might take some time to achieve yet. Not going to be achieved right after the vote.
7/10
** People's Vote **
Popular support for a second referendum is growing, and the idea has some support across party lines. And offers a blocked Commons a way out.
Chances: might take some time to achieve yet. Not going to be achieved right after the vote.
7/10
OPTION 6️⃣
** General Election **
Jeremy Corbyn wants it. But while Tories and the DUP might dislike Theresa May's deal, they definitely do not want this.
Chances: unlikely on its own, but possible in conjunction with another option.
8/10
** General Election **
Jeremy Corbyn wants it. But while Tories and the DUP might dislike Theresa May's deal, they definitely do not want this.
Chances: unlikely on its own, but possible in conjunction with another option.
8/10
OPTION 7️⃣
** Something else **
European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 states that the government has to tell Parliament by 21.1.2019 what the way forward is. Ask for an Art 50 extension? Withdraw Art 50 notification?
Chances: options once other routes exhausted.
9/10
** Something else **
European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 states that the government has to tell Parliament by 21.1.2019 what the way forward is. Ask for an Art 50 extension? Withdraw Art 50 notification?
Chances: options once other routes exhausted.
9/10
So there you are folks. All of this is going to get very tense, and very complicated, within the next three weeks.
Today's deal was the easy bit.
And it's all to play for still!
And a reminder - the detailed version of this is here: jonworth.eu/there-is-a-wit…
10/10
Today's deal was the easy bit.
And it's all to play for still!
And a reminder - the detailed version of this is here: jonworth.eu/there-is-a-wit…
10/10
