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In general, CHS enjoying a stronger turnout in white areas than Roy Moore did, but Espy not as obviously getting a higher turnout than Jones in black areas (though fewer black counties completed).
Probably relatedly, CHS also running ahead of an ALSEN baseline in white areas
Probably relatedly, CHS also running ahead of an ALSEN baseline in white areas
And as the turnout picture shapes up, Espy appears to run even farther behind his 'true' targets than the ALSEN based targets we started with. Mid-single digits with an ALSEN-like turnout can quickly turn into an 8 point defeat or worse if the turnout picture isn't so favorable
And here's a quick look of what we've seen RE: turnout so far. Not much out of majority black counties, but none of it is keeping up with the more robust returns from white areas 
