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We got a glimpse of conditions that yield a viable third party bid in 1992, when Perot was tied or even ahead in polls ahead of the DNC.
Here, CBS/NYT in 6/92: B32, P30, C24
Bush app: 34%
Clinton fav/unfav: 16/40
Perot fav/unfav: 26/20
By all measures, status quo less conducive
Here, CBS/NYT in 6/92: B32, P30, C24
Bush app: 34%
Clinton fav/unfav: 16/40
Perot fav/unfav: 26/20
By all measures, status quo less conducive
(I would also argue that Schultz is not as well positioned to take advantage of whatever opening exists as Perot was, but that's a separate question)
Of course, we haven't had many vigorous third party bids.
But it makes sense to me that you'd want to see *both* Trump approval and likely Dem nominee favorability under at least 35, and probably lower, before there was a real opening
But it makes sense to me that you'd want to see *both* Trump approval and likely Dem nominee favorability under at least 35, and probably lower, before there was a real opening
That's logical given the conditions you'd need for a third party win (can't do it with anything lower than appx. 34-33-32 in the national vote, after all), and it lines up with the one time we've seen a third party bid tied or ahead
