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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The missing NC-9 vote nytimes.com/2018/12/07/ups…
A minor note here--this data will differ somewhat from most other analysis in that I've removed all of the absentee voters who wound up voting by other means (in person on election day or in early voting) or who appear to have change counties since they applied
Interestingly, some (perhaps all, didn't go through) voters who submitted affidavits about people picking up their absentee ballots wound up voting by other means (which makes sense, since clearly they realized something was up)
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
We got a glimpse of conditions that yield a viable third party bid in 1992, when Perot was tied or even ahead in polls ahead of the DNC.
Here, CBS/NYT in 6/92: B32, P30, C24
Bush app: 34%
Clinton fav/unfav: 16/40
Perot fav/unfav: 26/20
By all measures, status quo less conducive
(I would also argue that Schultz is not as well positioned to take advantage of whatever opening exists as Perot was, but that's a separate question)
Of course, we haven't had many vigorous third party bids.
But it makes sense to me that you'd want to see *both* Trump approval and likely Dem nominee favorability under at least 35, and probably lower, before there was a real opening
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
I'm so upset right now. Infuriating game
Forget the Q4 refs. The offensive play calling is outrageous. Wilson is the best player on the field and he wasn't even given a chance to win this game
I really can't remember a more upsetting game. I really don't get upset easily, but "shuffle" on the playbook might have been better offensive playcalling
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
In general, CHS enjoying a stronger turnout in white areas than Roy Moore did, but Espy not as obviously getting a higher turnout than Jones in black areas (though fewer black counties completed).
Probably relatedly, CHS also running ahead of an ALSEN baseline in white areas
And as the turnout picture shapes up, Espy appears to run even farther behind his 'true' targets than the ALSEN based targets we started with. Mid-single digits with an ALSEN-like turnout can quickly turn into an 8 point defeat or worse if the turnout picture isn't so favorable
And here's a quick look of what we've seen RE: turnout so far. Not much out of majority black counties, but none of it is keeping up with the more robust returns from white areas
Read 3 tweets

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Steadman™
@AsteadWesley
Hello from South Carolina, where Elizabeth Warren is making her first visit to the state. Packed house. If only someone wrote about her courting of black voters? (Me. I did.)

nytimes.com/2018/12/25/us/…
That turquoise dot. That's the Senator. Certainly a more diverse crowd than Iowa, but state officials expect black voters to make up 60 -- 65 percent of primary electorate. Would not say that's true of this particular audience
Tweaks to Warren's stump speech in SC. Instead of saying the path is particularly rocky for "people of color," as she said in Iowa and NH, she said "particularly rocky for African Americans."

She also mentions "corrupt" private prison system. Which was not part of Iowa speech
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Michael Green
@andmichaelgreen
#VOTE like you remember family separation.

#Vote like you remember Kavanaugh.

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#Vote like you remember Khizr and Ghazala Khan.

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Leanne Watt, Ph.D.
@leannewattphd
Richard Painter & I co-wrote an op-ed examining bizarre behaviors of KEY Republicans in Congress from a rational, evidence-based POV.

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Is their conduct voluntary? We challenge that narrative. @RWPUSA #VOTE

medium.com/@leannewattphd…
Beyond coercion, there are other behavioral motivations behind GOP conduct tied to authoritarianism & war agenda & found in our Rocket Man chapter.

We wrote both of these gratis and in a non-partisan fashion.

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Praying Medic
@prayingmedic
1) This is my Q thread for November 2, 2018

Q posts can be found here: qmap.pub

Android apps:
bit.ly/Q_Drops
bit.ly/Q-alerts

My theme: Do Not Let Them DIVIDE You
2) After last posting on October 9th, Q is back on the board.
3) Heads up to those who watch General Flynn's Twitter page:
His background changed during the last 24 hours.
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Joel Strickland
@joelstrickland
#vote

theguardian.com/us-news/2018/o…
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