1/n One of @gwern's best essays ever is a review of a book nobody has ever heard of.
It's about looking into the future, seeing exactly what awaits us, and being unable to capitalize on this knowledge, because you only know *what* will be and not *when* it will be.
It's about looking into the future, seeing exactly what awaits us, and being unable to capitalize on this knowledge, because you only know *what* will be and not *when* it will be.
2/n "one quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, but X was off by a few years & jumped the gun & so Z was the person who wound up taking all the spoils." 
3/n "A good idea will draw overly-optimistic entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant."
4/n and what if you realize that the time for the technology you're in love with has not come yet? If you thought "change the field" —you got it wrong.
You continue working on it for many years without end in sight...
You continue working on it for many years without end in sight...
5/n ...and then when Moore's Law finally makes your technology viable you turn around and say "see! I was right all along!"
6/n "we are building the world’s 20th search engine at a time when most of the others have been abandoned as being commoditized money losers. We’ll strip out all of the ad-supported news & portal features so you won’t be distracted from using the free search stuff."
7/n @backus has a bunch more fascinating examples of early internet businesses that were right; but too early
8/n "Bill Gates was not the first & only Gates, he was the last Gates; ... Mark Zuckerberg was not the first & only Zuckerberg, he was the last Zuckerberg"
9/n can you really act on your superior knowledge?
"There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things."
"There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things."
n/n
"When a knife drops, a fraction of a second divides a brilliant save from an emergency-room visit. The 'bleeding edge'."
the review: goodreads.com/review/show/37…
"When a knife drops, a fraction of a second divides a brilliant save from an emergency-room visit. The 'bleeding edge'."
the review: goodreads.com/review/show/37…
n+1/n
