1/ The Golden Age of Healthy CPG (Food & Beverage)...
2/ Amara’s law: we over estimate impact in the short term and under estimate the impact in the long term.
*Also represented in Gartner hype cycle and Perez’s tech cycle
*Also represented in Gartner hype cycle and Perez’s tech cycle
3/ Where do we see this at play in the health & wellness community relevant to food & beverage space?
4/ Dietary trends is interesting to view - ie, Low carb, Paleo, Gluten free, Keto...
4b/ Low Carb - picked up steam in late 90s with Atkins. 1997 brought the first best seller and remained on the list for 5 years - til 2002. Google trends shows search decline after 2004 but picking up again recently.
4c/ Paleo peaks around 2014 - with a meteoric rise starting around 2010. Books like @robbwolf Paleo Solution @Mark_Sisson Daily Apple blog as well as the @CrossFit boom set this in motion.
4d/ Gluten free comes on the scene in a slower steady rise. Kicking off earlier circa 2008, similar peak in 2014 and continuing with some real staying power. Books like Grain Brain by @DavidPerlmutter bring the science mainstream.
4e/ Lets look at all three together
4f/ Keto. The latest entry into the foray has caught fire starting in 2017. It’s passed paleo and low carb in google interest (not uncommon for a new thing that is not as well known) but google projects this trend above all the others.
5/ Many people entrenched in the space see these all pretty differently. But that’s like Christians debating about who’s really Christian.
6/ The Perez defined “Big Bang” idea was that diet and your fitness are THE defining factor in your health. And pharma isn’t going to fix your issues.
7/ The science then went all over the map figuring out the contributors, how they interface, etc. Tons of bad science and special interest skewing (especially pre/early internet). One example: nytimes.com/2016/09/13/wel…
8/ The unifying science is now clear: lower carbs, lower sugar, avoid shit additives (gluten, artificials, etc).
The nuance isn't settled science - but directionally this is settled.
The nuance isn't settled science - but directionally this is settled.
9/ From a consumer angle, this seems to have started catching in the late 90s and early 2000s. There’s still market confusion (even today) but we can see the haze clearing and the consumer behavior lining up.
10/ From 1997-2017 It seems we've had 20 years of the tail end of the installation period. We’ve had some frenzies. Inflated claims and asset prices. As well as market confusion, nomenclature confusion, etc.
11/ There have been fits and starts with “fringe” tribes that pop up with veracity but don’t hit full mainstream. Yet they all contribute to the installation phase - that is, installing a new way of thinking and behaving into the market.
12/ We’ve also had other contributing factors over the last 10 years.
Perhaps the most important is the deployment period of the Internet @benedictevans Mobile phones, social media, and e-commerce.
Perhaps the most important is the deployment period of the Internet @benedictevans Mobile phones, social media, and e-commerce.
12b/ In short: this means people can get information from all pockets of the world, from people they trust, and then vote with their wallets to buy products to support their lifestyle.
13/ Given the last 20 years of consumer health + the deployment of the internet...
14/ I believe we’re in the early phase of the Golden Era of healthy CPG. And I think it started about 2-3 years ago.
(image is another Perez representation)
(image is another Perez representation)
15/ We’re entering into the early deployment period - larger than the big CPGs see it and larger than most investors see it. The "Golden Age."
16/ And a true Amara’s law of underestimation in terms of the long-term impact (next 20+ years).
