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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
And I think it's gonna be a long long time
'Till I admit my econ is subprime
I'm not the man they claim I am at home
Oh no no no I'm a Tariff Man
Tariff Man!
Burning your 401(k) alone!
Tariff Man, Tariff Man
Does whatever a POTUS can
Lays a tax, any size
Brags in tweets, the market dies
Look out! Here comes the Tariff Man
Levy a tax, you're the Tariff Man!
Levy a tax tonight
You bizarrely think foreigners payin' them
And you've given markets a fright
He lies and says free trade's within him
But he's a Tariff Man
He tweets 'bout China, the market's red
Cause he's a Tariff Man
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Excellent, myth-shattering research from @sffed on American consumption & imports:
frbsf.org/economic-resea…
TL;DR: only ~11% of US consumption dollars are spent on imports (only ~2% from China); BUT abt HALF of these dollars go to US firms/workers & half of imports are inputs /1
More:
Fig 2: when Americans buy imports, the ones "made in CHINA" generate the most revenue (~56 cents for every dollar spent) for US firms/workers;
Fig 3: imports from NAFTA countries (esp Canada) are most often industrial inputs for US manufacturing /2
Also interesting: even for goods (which are more easily tradable) US consumers spend well under half of their dollars (42.4%) on imports.
(Note also the significant shares of US content in imports & vice versa) /3
Read 7 tweets
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Except the vast majority of the consumer benefits of trade, referenced here, accrue to America's poor and middle class, not the "elites."
Meanwhile, subsequent research has shown significant benefits for US manufacturing from the "China shock", eg,
and

and
/2
Then there is the research showing that the rise of Chinese trade competitiveness was due less to US govt/elite action (eg PNTR) than to China's *own liberalization* /3
Read 10 tweets
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Good thread on tariff incidence (though I'm not sure Trump gets this point at all). Also important: in the real world, a lot of things prevent a quick/easy shift in supply or change in import price - contracts, supply chains, consumer preferences, finite global supply, etc.
In Section 301 comments, for example, dozens of US firms noted that, bc of these factors, it'd take YEARS to switch import suppliers, even where adequate non-China supply exists. Others said that US demand outstripped non-China supplies & building new facilities wasn't realistic.
So there are a lot of practical impediments to shifting a tariff burden away from consumers, even where the textbooks say it should be easy.
Read 3 tweets

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