THREAD: California Sen. @Scott_Wiener revived his proposal to boost homebuilding near transit yesterday. A prior version became the most talked about housing bill in the country before it failed earlier this year. My initial take on the new plan: (1/11) latimes.com/politics/la-po…
The bill #SB50 keeps much of last year’s bill in tact. Four-to-five-stories near rail. Relaxed building rules near frequently used bus stops. No maps yet, but I imagine large parts of LA/SF would still be rezoned. There are three major policy differences that I've outlined (2/11) 
You should expect much of the debate to center on those issues and the percent of new development set aside for low-income residents. And unlike last time, where the bill died at the first chance it could, I would definitely expect a debate this year (3/11)
That’s because the politics are different. The state construction workers union (@CA_Bldg_Trades), the most powerful housing interest group, is now in favor. Tenant advocates whose opposition led to the bill’s quick demise last time are negotiating. (4/11)
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latimes.com/politics/la-po…
@CA_Bldg_Trades Some major city leaders are saying nice things about the bill, too. Last time, @ericgarcetti was a little squishy on the bill and ultimately opposed it. He hasn’t endorsed SB 50 but again is being nicer than before (5/11)
But the opposition is much more organized. A new statewide group of neighborhood activists has popped up largely after last year’s fight galvanized them. Their local Bay Area candidates had success on election day. Expect really intense pushback livablecalifornia.org (6/11)
Also, as noted by @ahartreports legislative opponents — Sens. @jimbealljr and @ilike_mike — are planning to introduce their own bills, which is a common tactic opposing sides use at the Capitol to blunt major policy shifts politico.com/states/califor… (7/11)
@ahartreports @Jimbealljr @ilike_mike The wildcard, of course, is new Gov. @GavinNewsom. He was lukewarm on Wiener’s proposal last time. But he’s also called for a tremendous amount of new homebuilding centered on transit. latimes.com/politics/essen…. So far, he’s stayed silent on SB 50 and other legislation. (8/11)
If Newsom stays hands off, the legislative meat grinder will likely chew up the bill. Recall that a successful but much narrower bill last year to increase density near BART faced strong bipartisan opposition. But if he pushes for this, governors can tend to clear the way. (9/11)
Similarly, other lawmakers are already introducing a ton of other housing bills. If there’s a package of legislation like in 2017 that too could change dynamics such that those who otherwise be opposed would say yes to a larger deal (10/11) latimes.com/politics/essen…
We will, of course, have more coverage of this and other housing issues at the Capitol and beyond at LA Times Dot Com and the @CaHousingPod (11/11)
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