Thread by @Joe_Marshall0

A few thoughts on last night's events in Parliament.
1. As Grieve said himself, his amendment does not prevent a no deal (still the legal default), but does make it less likely by allowing Parli step in and tell the gov not to let it happen.

2. As @ThimontJack has said, by making Parli's 2nd vote amendable - the Grieve amendment allows MPs to push the can down the road again, using the first vote to reject the PM's deal, but only having to make substantive suggestions on what they want instead in round 2.

3. As most MPs don't want no deal, Grieve amdt ups stakes for hard Brexiters. If PM's deal is voted down, Parli may push for a softer Brexit or 2nd ref in vote 2. Makes it slightly more likely PM deal passes in vote 1, but less likely MPs would be bounced into 2nd vote on PM deal

4. However, publishing legal advice will confirm fears that there is no backstop get-out clause, but probably not say anything new (PM admitted no unilateral exit from backstop last week). Stark choice for hard Brexiters - backstop, or risk of a softer Brexit (or no Brexit).

5. If PM loses nx Tues, how Labour react will be important in setting the mood music. Will need to move quickly to maintain momentum and seize the emotional response. Tory remainers less likely to panic and support Labour if PM's deal voted down - now Grieve amdt lessens no deal

6 David Lammy's impassioned speech shows just how emotionally charged MPs are on both sides of the debate- with no one willing to step down just yet. PM must have been hoping for more signs of compromise by now...

7. As always, colleagues @instituteforgov have written some great explainers doing a far better job than me...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/los…
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/sec…
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/con…