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Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
*New #Brexit poll*

"In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Right 38% (-2)
Wrong 49% (+2)
Don't know 13% (+1)

That is an 11 point lead for "wrong", the largest lead on record

YouGov Dec 5
"Do you think Britain will be economically better or worse off after we leave the European Union, or will it make no difference?"

Better off 24%
Worse off 42%
No difference 19%

Net lead 18 points for "worse off", second highest on record

YouGov Dec 5 #Brexit
Important to recognise underlying polarisation:

90% Remainers say "wrong", 80% Leavers say "right"
70% of Labour voters say "wrong", 68% of Tories say "right"
Upper/middle-class break 56-34 for "wrong", working class 42-40 for "right"
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More from @GoodwinMJ see all

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Prime Minister May's dilemma

How Conservatives would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 25%
V
May Deal 56%

Remain 27%
V
No Deal 63%

May Deal 33%
V
No Deal 51%

1st preference in three-way EURef: Leave with No Deal

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
How Leavers would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 11%
V
May Deal 55%

Remain 13%
V
No Deal 70%

May Deal 19%
V
No Deal 60%

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
How Remainers would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 84%
V
May Deal 6%

Remain 84%
V
No Deal 7%

May Deal 49%
V
No Deal 10%

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
Read 4 tweets
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What's going to kick off in 2019

I'm late to the p-a-r-t-y
Populists and Eurosceptics will enjoy their strongest election in the history of European Parliament elections at #EP2019 in May
For reasons that I outline here @unherd bit.ly/2ViXw1w
Read 71 tweets
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Happy Christmas Twitter. I have 5 FREE copies of National Populism

First 5 to message me name + address get the book this week

Direct messages open, postage on me

amzn.to/2LkyPgL
all gone
And the winners are
Lewis
Jakob
schnorrerlox
Theo
Jon H
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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We are here today to deliberate the case of one Daniel John Hannan MP who stands charged with being the most cynical liar in British politics.

(Thread)
Admitted into evidence to support the case against him is a self-created film in which Mr Hannan argues what will happen to our trading relationship if we vote to leave the European Union.
In this evidence, Mr Hanan can be seen inventing a “European Single Market”. A single market that Moldova and Ukraine are apparently part of.

For the clarification of the jury, there is no such market. There is only a series of individually agreed preferences.
Read 23 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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1. It's no secret that I hold the #Brexit blob in utter contempt. They are charlatans and liars. The ones who aren't thick as shit, that is. Rees-Mogg is a lying hypocrite, and hard Brexit stands on a foundation of intellectual sand.
2. These are the people who never needed to study the impacts or the mechanics of Brexit because they are financially and politically insulated from its effects. Consequently their knowledge of the EU is minimal.
3. I have been a reader of EU affairs for a decade or more now and there is still much to learn and even I didn't realise the extend of EU integration. Where technical governance is concerned, practically every industry is governed by the EU to one extent or other.
Read 26 tweets
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1. A gaggle of MPs this week have repeated the mantra "my constituents did not vote to be poorer". What they actually mean is they think they have the moral authority to overturn the #Brexit vote. Not so...
2. The then PM made it quite clear that this was a momentous decision and the gravity of the decision was impressed upon all of us. We heard from academics, thik tanks, banks, corporates, universities and politicians all tyelling us we would be poorer. We all got that message.
3. Whether or not voters thought voting to leave would make us poorer is really besides the point. Voters heard the opsing arguments and made their choice accordingly - accepting the risks when they cast their vote.
Read 10 tweets
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Having spent two years remoaning about #brexit I have now quit complaining as I now see there are tremendous opportunities from leaving the European Union which will be embraced globally thread
Patrick Minford of economists for #brexit has stated that #brexit will mean the virtual end of UK manufacturing therefore many European countries will enjoy a relocation windfall
The great repeal Bill allows ministers to make ammend and unmake law without parliamentary approval meaning a huge #brexitopportunity opportunity for corrupt ministers to apply market mechanisms to political decision making
Read 17 tweets

Trending hashtags

#oranges #Brexit #medicines #leave #WeNeedGFA #lexiternow #quote #brexit #SelectCommittee #subsidy #tobacco #veterinary #licensing #SPS #WTOBrexit #ai #countries #customs #poultry #London #shortages #Tarrifs #Coordination #basicincome #cheese

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