Thread by @GoodwinMJ

What's going to kick off in 2019

I'm late to the p-a-r-t-y

Populists and Eurosceptics will enjoy their strongest election in the history of European Parliament elections at #EP2019 in May

For reasons that I outline here @unherd bit.ly/2ViXw1w

A conservative estimate is that the number of populist right/Eurosceptic MEPs will basically double - they'll struggle to unify at EP level but they'll be a bigger & more disruptive force

The fragmentation and rising volatility sweeping through Europe's political systems will continue

For reasons that we outline here, these are rooted in long-term structural shifts not short-term fleeting protest. This will give populism durability
amzn.to/2KgQncr

The mainstream will be the loser - at EP2019 the combined vote share for EPP & S&D will drop below 50%

Both in EP and member states, broader trends will make it harder for the EU to get strong, stable and ideologically coherent governance

Which it desperately needs

As I explain here bit.ly/2F30lii

Sweden, for example, might finally get a government after a record delay (notice how everybody has stopped talking about Sweden?)

National populism/ultra conservatives will be central to the results of national elections in Denmark, Poland, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia and state elections in Germany

People will say we are spending too much time talking about populism

Britain will -one way or another- officially leave the European Union in 2019

Theresa May will stand down in 2019, becoming the fourth PM in post-war Britain to forever be remembered for only one thing

(Eden + Suez, Blair + Iraq, Cameron + Brexit, May + Brexit)

The European Union will shrink for the first time in its history

The European Union and Britain will both be significantly weakened in 2019

The Eurozone will continue its disappointing low growth run

Political unrest, Brexit, reduced demand for China, trade tensions with US will = continued sluggish growth

Italy, No Deal Brexit, US trade tensions all contain potential for big econ shocks

With Merkel going and Macron weakened, a new debate will emerge about who will lead Europe

Europe's rightward drift in policy, especially on identity-related issues, will continue

This will be supported in a few countries by left-wing parties who sense the new mood

Fears of politics-induced market volatility will return in Italy

I'd not be surprised to see a fresh election this year

Or a fresh recession

Matteo Salvini will remain very popular

Emmanuel Macron will remain very unpopular

We will all finally realise that "Macron-ism" never really existed

A commentator in Britain will declare that it is finally time for a new Macron-style party

David Cameron's book will be delayed again

We will have lots of new and useful research on what populists actually do with power in Hungary, Austria, the US, Switzerland, Poland, Brazil, Norway, etc.

Twitter will continue to award the Greens in 1 major state a level of significance that is wholly disproportionate to their actual significance

Immigration will remain a big concern across Europe

It will continue to merge in the public mindset with borders, security and the EU

Europe's East-West divide over identity will sharpen

Somebody will declare that the EU has regained momentum

Most voters will, simply put, continue to look for a little bit more economic protectionism and a little bit more cultural protectionism

Parties that meet that formula will do well

Cosmopolitans will continue to exaggerate the size of their tribe

Lots of magazine covers will tell us about an Open versus Closed world

They will (a) ignore the larger number of tribes that exist between these two extreme poles (b) adopt the same binary language of populists and (c) give populists a clearly-defined enemy

Many on "the left" in Europe and the US will remain rather lost amid the current realignment of politics

They will cling to outdated theories, obsessing about narrow and inadequate "economic-only explanations"

The strange death of social democracy will continue, albeit with 1 or 2 outliers

Self-reflection and ideological innovation will continue to make way for hysteria

More and more things will be called fascist

Very few of those things will actually be fascist

Socialists will cheer the election in Portugal but ignore the one in Greece

Concerns about threats to the basic rule of law will continue to spread through the EU, from Poland -> Hungary and now -> Romania

Romania will take rotating presidency & oversee measures against Poland and Hungary while facing criticism for weakening its own anti-corruption laws

Awkward

The interesting & more resonant debates in politics will continue to come not from the left but from an assortment of classical liberals and conservatives

The "urban-rural" divide between big cities vs small towns/rural areas will be increasingly mobilised in politics

In Britain, "Leavers" and "Remainers" will continue to become stronger political identities

Leavers will inevitably feel betrayed

Remainers will continue to reflect very little on what happened in 2016

My mother will continue to call me each week with the opening line: "What the bloody hell is happening with politics then?!"

Britain's Brexit debate will remain incredibly insular, detached from the wider trends that are reshaping politics across much of the West

We will continue to talk endlessly about domestic economic risk while ignoring what actually caused Brexit: people's worries about external risks

Richard Hofstadter's "paranoid style" in politics will continue to make a surprising and strong comeback courtesy of Adonis et al.

The fundamentals of British politics will continue to create a climate favourable for "Corbynomics"

As I argue in @thesundaytimes
bit.ly/2DWdIAw

More local councils will go bust

If Britain has a general election in 2019, which I think is unlikely, Jeremy Corbyn will be the next Prime Minister

British Conservatives will continue to fail to grasp who is actually voting for them today and what those voters are looking for

Cabinet Ministers will continue to call for a Singapore-on-Thames

In the US the Democrats will remain consumed by identity politics

Elizabeth Warren will flop

Democrats & Remainers will realise that "We Are Not That Guy" is not enough

Here on Twitter, the signalling, outrage olympics and witch hunts will reach dizzying new heights

The far left will continue to display as much intolerance as the far right

There will be a record number of open letters

Twitter will continue to lose its value as a platform for reasoned debate

I might leave Twitter in 2019

Ends/