Profile picture
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
, 71 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
What's going to kick off in 2019

I'm late to the p-a-r-t-y
Populists and Eurosceptics will enjoy their strongest election in the history of European Parliament elections at #EP2019 in May
For reasons that I outline here @unherd bit.ly/2ViXw1w
A conservative estimate is that the number of populist right/Eurosceptic MEPs will basically double - they'll struggle to unify at EP level but they'll be a bigger & more disruptive force
The fragmentation and rising volatility sweeping through Europe's political systems will continue
For reasons that we outline here, these are rooted in long-term structural shifts not short-term fleeting protest. This will give populism durability
amzn.to/2KgQncr
The mainstream will be the loser - at EP2019 the combined vote share for EPP & S&D will drop below 50%
Both in EP and member states, broader trends will make it harder for the EU to get strong, stable and ideologically coherent governance

Which it desperately needs

As I explain here bit.ly/2F30lii
Sweden, for example, might finally get a government after a record delay (notice how everybody has stopped talking about Sweden?)
National populism/ultra conservatives will be central to the results of national elections in Denmark, Poland, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia and state elections in Germany
People will say we are spending too much time talking about populism
Britain will -one way or another- officially leave the European Union in 2019
Theresa May will stand down in 2019, becoming the fourth PM in post-war Britain to forever be remembered for only one thing
(Eden + Suez, Blair + Iraq, Cameron + Brexit, May + Brexit)
The European Union will shrink for the first time in its history
The European Union and Britain will both be significantly weakened in 2019
The Eurozone will continue its disappointing low growth run
Political unrest, Brexit, reduced demand for China, trade tensions with US will = continued sluggish growth
Italy, No Deal Brexit, US trade tensions all contain potential for big econ shocks
With Merkel going and Macron weakened, a new debate will emerge about who will lead Europe
Europe's rightward drift in policy, especially on identity-related issues, will continue
This will be supported in a few countries by left-wing parties who sense the new mood
Fears of politics-induced market volatility will return in Italy
I'd not be surprised to see a fresh election this year
Or a fresh recession
Matteo Salvini will remain very popular
Emmanuel Macron will remain very unpopular
We will all finally realise that "Macron-ism" never really existed
A commentator in Britain will declare that it is finally time for a new Macron-style party
David Cameron's book will be delayed again
We will have lots of new and useful research on what populists actually do with power in Hungary, Austria, the US, Switzerland, Poland, Brazil, Norway, etc.
Twitter will continue to award the Greens in 1 major state a level of significance that is wholly disproportionate to their actual significance
Immigration will remain a big concern across Europe
It will continue to merge in the public mindset with borders, security and the EU
Europe's East-West divide over identity will sharpen
Somebody will declare that the EU has regained momentum
Most voters will, simply put, continue to look for a little bit more economic protectionism and a little bit more cultural protectionism

Parties that meet that formula will do well
Cosmopolitans will continue to exaggerate the size of their tribe
Lots of magazine covers will tell us about an Open versus Closed world
They will (a) ignore the larger number of tribes that exist between these two extreme poles (b) adopt the same binary language of populists and (c) give populists a clearly-defined enemy
Many on "the left" in Europe and the US will remain rather lost amid the current realignment of politics
They will cling to outdated theories, obsessing about narrow and inadequate "economic-only explanations"
The strange death of social democracy will continue, albeit with 1 or 2 outliers
Self-reflection and ideological innovation will continue to make way for hysteria
More and more things will be called fascist
Very few of those things will actually be fascist
Socialists will cheer the election in Portugal but ignore the one in Greece
Concerns about threats to the basic rule of law will continue to spread through the EU, from Poland -> Hungary and now -> Romania
Romania will take rotating presidency & oversee measures against Poland and Hungary while facing criticism for weakening its own anti-corruption laws

Awkward
The interesting & more resonant debates in politics will continue to come not from the left but from an assortment of classical liberals and conservatives
The "urban-rural" divide between big cities vs small towns/rural areas will be increasingly mobilised in politics
In Britain, "Leavers" and "Remainers" will continue to become stronger political identities
Leavers will inevitably feel betrayed
Remainers will continue to reflect very little on what happened in 2016
My mother will continue to call me each week with the opening line: "What the bloody hell is happening with politics then?!"
Britain's Brexit debate will remain incredibly insular, detached from the wider trends that are reshaping politics across much of the West
We will continue to talk endlessly about domestic economic risk while ignoring what actually caused Brexit: people's worries about external risks
Richard Hofstadter's "paranoid style" in politics will continue to make a surprising and strong comeback courtesy of Adonis et al.
The fundamentals of British politics will continue to create a climate favourable for "Corbynomics"

As I argue in @thesundaytimes
bit.ly/2DWdIAw
More local councils will go bust
If Britain has a general election in 2019, which I think is unlikely, Jeremy Corbyn will be the next Prime Minister
British Conservatives will continue to fail to grasp who is actually voting for them today and what those voters are looking for
Cabinet Ministers will continue to call for a Singapore-on-Thames
In the US the Democrats will remain consumed by identity politics
Elizabeth Warren will flop
Democrats & Remainers will realise that "We Are Not That Guy" is not enough
Here on Twitter, the signalling, outrage olympics and witch hunts will reach dizzying new heights
The far left will continue to display as much intolerance as the far right
There will be a record number of open letters
Twitter will continue to lose its value as a platform for reasoned debate
I might leave Twitter in 2019

Ends/
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Matthew Goodwin
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!