Let me attempt to enlighten a few people about the election peculiarities I have observed from the data put forward (and vigorously defended) by @DeepDiveNG and @inecnigeria.
I will use screenshots of data and infograms from both sources as necessary.
Thread!
I will use screenshots of data and infograms from both sources as necessary.
Thread!
First off, let me state clearly that I don't think @DeepDiveNG is a deliberately fraudulent outfit.
Nothing from their engagement and strict use of data has (yet) made me to believe they are run in order to deliberately discredit a particular political party.
Nothing from their engagement and strict use of data has (yet) made me to believe they are run in order to deliberately discredit a particular political party.
In the 2015 elections, the first anomaly arises from the total NUMBER of VALID votes cast.
According to @inecnigeria website, this number was finally collated at 29,432,038
(We need to understand that VALID VOTES here was in the context of the 2015 electoral act)
According to @inecnigeria website, this number was finally collated at 29,432,038
(We need to understand that VALID VOTES here was in the context of the 2015 electoral act)
Now, as I'm sure you noticed above, total number of accredited voters (those who had a full biometric accreditation + those who had only their PVCs verified by the card reader) was 23,643,478
This number is LESS that than the total number of VALID VOTES cast
How can this be?
This number is LESS that than the total number of VALID VOTES cast
How can this be?
Here's why
According to the 2015 electoral act (prepared by the PDP), there is a provision inserted that allows for the use of INCIDENCE FORMS for those whose cards cannot be validated by the card reader
Therefore, in the 2015 elections, there were 5,788,559 voters who did not
According to the 2015 electoral act (prepared by the PDP), there is a provision inserted that allows for the use of INCIDENCE FORMS for those whose cards cannot be validated by the card reader
Therefore, in the 2015 elections, there were 5,788,559 voters who did not
Therefore, in the 2015 elections there were 5,788,559 voters who DID NOT jpass biometric or card verification processes, & who WERE ALLOWED to cast valid votes
According to @DeepDiveNG MOST of these non-accredited voters (with names in the voter's register) were from the SOUTH
According to @DeepDiveNG MOST of these non-accredited voters (with names in the voter's register) were from the SOUTH
In other words we can safely say that in 2015, PDP smuggled a provision into the electoral act that would enable it pad the voter's register with fake names, & also produce PVCs to match them
This is why the VAST MAJORITY of cases of non-accredited valid votes are in the SS & SE
This is why the VAST MAJORITY of cases of non-accredited valid votes are in the SS & SE
But there were a few cases of unaccredited valid votes in the NORTH as well.
These were notably in Kano, Kaduna and Sokoto.
Can you guess which party was in charge (in those states) when the electoral act was drafted?
These were notably in Kano, Kaduna and Sokoto.
Can you guess which party was in charge (in those states) when the electoral act was drafted?
Now, this is where the game changed for GEJ in the 2015 elections
5 governors decamped from the PDP. Kano, Kwara, Sokoto, Rivers and Adamawa.
Out of these 5, Kano and Rivers were the 2 top states targeted by the PDP candidate to garner a quantum of votes to ensure victory
5 governors decamped from the PDP. Kano, Kwara, Sokoto, Rivers and Adamawa.
Out of these 5, Kano and Rivers were the 2 top states targeted by the PDP candidate to garner a quantum of votes to ensure victory
Is it any surprise that the highest cases of VALID VOTES CAST WITHOUT ACCREDITATION in the NORTH & SOUTH came from these 2 states?
When statements like these were made, it is important to understand what the politicians are REALLY trying to say.
premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/…
premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/…
In continuing with my trend of thought, we had voters whose cards were validated but whose fingerprints were unable to be read by the card reader.
These voters were predominantly located in the NORTH
These voters were predominantly located in the NORTH
In other words, on election day, the card reader was unable to verify the fingerprints of several voters PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTH.
Could it be possible that faulty card readers were DELIBERATELY sent to the NORTH (APC's stronghold) during the 2015 elections?
Could it be possible that faulty card readers were DELIBERATELY sent to the NORTH (APC's stronghold) during the 2015 elections?
Therefore when the NASS is attempting to have a NEW ELECTORAL ACT signed into law, barely 3 months to the elections, it is certainly cause for concern.
WHAT HAVE THE POLITICIANS HIDDEN IN THE NEW ELECTORAL ACT?
The Senate President is the campaign DG of the opposition candidate
WHAT HAVE THE POLITICIANS HIDDEN IN THE NEW ELECTORAL ACT?
The Senate President is the campaign DG of the opposition candidate
The Speaker of the house of Reps is also a PDP member
it's safe to assume that their topmost priority is to achieve regime change after the 2019 elections
PMB is right to be suspicious about their motives in attempting to force a new electoral act through, 3 months to elections
it's safe to assume that their topmost priority is to achieve regime change after the 2019 elections
PMB is right to be suspicious about their motives in attempting to force a new electoral act through, 3 months to elections
On the other hand, it's also possible that those whose fingerprints couldn't be authenticated by the card reader (even though their PVCs were valid) could be impostors
In the cases of the NORTH, suspicions always lurk in SOUTHern minds that foreigners were transported in to vote
In the cases of the NORTH, suspicions always lurk in SOUTHern minds that foreigners were transported in to vote
Even though the above cases also occurred in souther states, let us look at the numbers.
If we strip out all non-accredited AND partially accredited votes from the tally, we will be left with 10,266,139 valid votes cast in the 2015 election.
WHO GOT THOSE VOTES?
If we strip out all non-accredited AND partially accredited votes from the tally, we will be left with 10,266,139 valid votes cast in the 2015 election.
WHO GOT THOSE VOTES?
It will be fiendishly difficult for me at this stage to obtain actual voting tallies for the fully biometrically accredited votes in 2015.
But we can attempt to make an educated guess backed with data.
HOW?
But we can attempt to make an educated guess backed with data.
HOW?
It's simple. We tally each state won by each candidate & we attempt to use the percentage of total vote distribution on the actual biometrically accredited votes, in order to get a very rough picture
This will also give us an indication of which party holds an advantage for 2019
This will also give us an indication of which party holds an advantage for 2019
Using a spreadsheet software, I was able to do this using the total voting ratios for each candidate & applying them to the value for fully biometrically accredited voters across the country
My calculations show the APC candidate winning (out of 10,266,139) with 5,834,414 votes
My calculations show the APC candidate winning (out of 10,266,139) with 5,834,414 votes
Please note that this is guesswork
We can never really know how the TRUE VOTERS cast their votes in 2015
Also note that there were 2.3 million voters who were fully accredited, BUT WERE NOT ALLOWED TO VOTE
Therefore if we study the above with its implications towards 2019
We can never really know how the TRUE VOTERS cast their votes in 2015
Also note that there were 2.3 million voters who were fully accredited, BUT WERE NOT ALLOWED TO VOTE
Therefore if we study the above with its implications towards 2019
It can help us understand that these politicians are well aware of their shortcomings, and are only seeking a way to foist unfair advantages on themselves to the detriment of the Nigerian voter.
A National Assembly that saw fit to
1.delay the federal budget
2. stall several vital bills
3. SHUT DOWN IT'S ACTIVITIES FOR TWO MONTHS
4. play politics with the INEC funding as well as funding for other vital FG policies
1.delay the federal budget
2. stall several vital bills
3. SHUT DOWN IT'S ACTIVITIES FOR TWO MONTHS
4. play politics with the INEC funding as well as funding for other vital FG policies
is suddenly interested in passing an electoral act, about 2 months to elections
We the voters ought to be wary of their motives.
Considering that a version of the bill earlier sent to the president for assent HAD THE CARD READER PROVISION REMOVED, we will be naive to believe
We the voters ought to be wary of their motives.
Considering that a version of the bill earlier sent to the president for assent HAD THE CARD READER PROVISION REMOVED, we will be naive to believe
that the NASS leadership is truly interested in promoting transparent democracy as opposed to selfish politics.
Nigerians BEWARE.
Nigerians BEWARE.
To go back to the maith thread 👇🏿
