Thread by @DawieScholtz

1/ So we had some fascinating by-elections yesterday! All-in-all a very good day for the ANC.

The ANC held all its wards, took two wards off the DA in the Western Cape and one ward of the IFP in KZN.

Looking deeper though, there's a lot going on below the surface right now

2/ Western Cape: The DA is losing rural coloured voters

Cederberg 4:
ANC 49% (+23)
DA 37% (-30) !!!

Matzikama 6:
ANC 49% (+9)
DA 48% (-5)

It this trend continues into Cape Town, the DA's got trouble...

3/ KZN: The ANC bucked the 2018 trend and took a ward of the IFP in Northern KZN

The ANC's been bleeding 10-15% to the IFP in Northern KZN all year. This one went the other way:

Mtubatuba 12:
ANC 56% (+20)
IFP 42% (-16)

Not sure what's going on here. Surprising result.

4/ Gauteng: The ANC's got problems in Tshwane's townships

Yesterday, in Tshwane 19:
ANC 64% (-15)
EFF 22% (+12)
DA 8.5% (-)

That's the 3rd bad by-election in a row for the ANC in Tshwane. Others:
Tshwane 9:
ANC 69% (-14)

Tshwane 37:
ANC 62% (-4)

This is important for GP 2019

5/ Finally, the Northern tier: Townships in Limpopo/North West/Mpumalanga

By-elections have been all over the place this year. In most, the ANC have lost support. Yesterday they gained in one in NW and lost some support in one in LM.

6/ All-in-all I think it's becoming clear that this is going to be a highly regionalised election in 2019. Lots of things have happened in SA in the last year; and different parts of the country are responding differently.

It's going to be a fascinating election folks!