Thread by @DawieScholtz

1/ The SAIRR's polling numbers are out:

ANC - 52%
DA - 24%
EFF - 13%

Thoughts:
-Methodology is credible, with 1 exception
-Reflects by-election trends
-Precise numbers are irrelevant this early
-EFF is overstated and ANC understated
-The favourability numbers are fascinating

2.1/ Methodology :

This is the most credible poll this year. Why:
-It allocates undecideds and leaners
-It polled registered voters and applied a likely voter screen
-It applied demographic balancing to reflect make-up of electorate
-It modeled turnout scenarios

2.2/ Methodology continued:

But the poll has one key issue. It models a full turnout scenario and an 83% turnout scenario. Much too high. Realistic turnout is in 70-75% range. So it includes a lot of low-propensity EFF support, which is why EFF is overstated and ANC understated.

3/ Trends:

At a high level it captures the trends we've seen in by-elections:
ANC: Down 5% in the townships since 2016
DA: Up marginally in the townships, steady in suburbs
EFF: Up in the townships
IFP: Recovering in rural KZN

4/ The numbers:

The precise number for parties is irrelevant at this stage. There's a campaign to come. And a lot of time. This is about the trends and the underlying fundamentals. Get feel: This reflects a 'push comes to shove' real support level of mid to high 50s for the ANC.

5/ Favourability:

For early polls, look at underlying fundamentals. The total reservoir of votes available to parties is reflected in party favourability. DA and EFF's fav is historically high and ANC's historicall-low.

The poll clearly indicates potential for big oppo inroads.