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Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan
, 14 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Another #Brexit #thread
1/ Here's the thing about the Theresa May — Jean-Claude Juncker spat over whether May was vague or not at the #EUCO summit table about her Brexit demands. It’s a sideshow because the undeniable reality is that Westminster-at-large is vague.
2/ Westminister is undeniably vague via there being no majority for any type of Brexit, yet an absolute insistence from the British government and opposition leader that nevertheless a hard-ish take back control Brexit must happen.
3/ That cul-de-sac is Theresa May's fault. Other leaders might have called Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Strugeon, Carwyn Jones and Arlene Foster round a single table and told them they weren't leaving until a tolerable version of Brexit could be agreed or, per above, tolerated
4/ (p.s. No EU27 leader cares if that’s not the usual British way or sorting out political drama. It’s what they would do, and they’re the ones Britain needs to convince)
5/ Other leaders might waited to start Brexit countdown negotiations until they had domestic support.
6/ Other leaders might have treated all 27 EU countries as (near) equals in their lobbying and schmoozing. I bet Lithuanian diplomats want to scream down their non-ringing phones every time they hear a Brit talk about the German car industry's desperate need for British customers
7/ Other leaders might have given the EU27 a hard number gap to work with, by daring to put their unpopular deal to a vote. Theresa May did none of those things.
8/ And for the reasons I outlined in my piece Thursday (“Brexit Britain: Small, boring and stupid”…) that plan isn't working for May.
9/ Yes, the EU is being disingenuous when it says the deal cannot be revisited. If May turned up with a new British consensus around a softer Brexit, the EU27 would agree in about 0.2 seconds.
10/ But May has not provided any evidence she will get her 117 missing votes, nor that any EU intervention could help her get them, nor any evidence of a hidden consensus she can or will negotiate.
11/ This isn’t a vote for Jeremy Corbyn: Labour wouldn’t get any better treatment unless they were actively working to keep UK in EU.
12/ So in the absence of a real strategy or a real commitment to compromise, Theresa May is left with the main things she’s had all along: empathy for her personal plight and week-to-week tactics that maybe, miraculously, will bear fruit.
13/ Who knows? The Italian government didn’t expect Macron to shoot himself in the foot and blow up his budget as a Yellow Vest containment strategy. But that external event sure helps Italy negotiate with the rest of EU.
14/ Who’s going to provide the same service for Mrs May? Take a ticket and queue in an orderly fashion, folks!
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