1. Christmas 2018 AM Summary Thread. I am 61 yrs old. Professional investor in 2000 and 2008. Was long early both run ups, out near frenzi, short at top and back side. This one I got wrong. Missed FANGS, missed this bull. Wrongly assumed QE would cause inflation. Thus, long gold
2. Gold and gold stocks worked 2008-2011, then disaster. (reason is an entirely different thread). We just saw the third bubble of 18 years burst. No doubt after last week. Personally i believe this one will be worse than 1929. Complete crash, There is no one to save the system
3. As the brilliant @paranoidbull bull and others @TheBubbleBubble point out the distortion caused by QE, ZIRP and free money created an Everything Bubble. It has now burst. It is a long way down. There is no "Daddy" Federal Reserve to save us. The Central Banks are fucked.
4. They only have one tool. Print money in the extreme and that will lead to hyperinflation and #Weimar. Getting from here to there will take time and involve bounces but it must happen. It is simple math. You cannot increase debt levels at a rate which exceeds GDP growth
5. GDP is what services debt. Too large a gap and the debt cannot be serviced. Either the debt defaults (deflationary) or the money becomes worthless as everyone flees the money knowing the next policy move.
6. Bursting bubbles are hugely deflationary. We know this from the Depression. Money goes to money heaven. Falling prices feed upon themselves in a self reinforcing downward spiral. In this instance we are at one degree larger of scale than 2000 and 2008.
7. 2000 was focused on the Internet, Tech and Telecom. 2008 was Housing. This bubble is in EVERYTHING It is subtle, but it is there. When the real pain starts (we are in the late first inning of the bursting bubble) the calls for the FED, Governments and others to ...
8. Do something! Will be overwhelming. Something will probably include: QE, buying stocks, forgiving student loans, tax refunds (helicopter money), debt foregiveness, laws to restrict capital movement, etc. But, underlying it all will be the printing of money. Otherwise bankrupt
9. The amount of money necessary will be an order of magnitude larger than last time, and last time it took $16 Trillion of FED emergency loans (1x GDP). My thesis is that when people see this they will lose faith in the system and will seek alternative money solutions
10. Thus, gold, silver perhaps other commodities and Bitcoin. ANYTHING THAT CANNOT BE PRINTED INTO OBLIVION. #Weimar. If I am correct it could be the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. This is what I believe will happen but I could be completely wrong
11. I have been badly wrong for a while now and so I have a Cassandra like feeling in my head. I am open minded to the possibility that the deflation will occur and it will hit gold and silver prices too.
12. All of this fits into the sociological thesis which I hold which says that this is a Fourth Turning as described by Howe and Strauss. All of the monetary rules are changing. It is going to be turbulent, very turbulent. However, few of us cannot see that the system...
13. is badly broken. It has been for some time now. A small group of Elites have totally fucked honest hard working people with their insidious fiat money game. Wages remain flat and costs go up. Meanwhile more and more rewards at the top. The gold standard would fix this.
14. Very few people understand this, but honest money is a moral issue. The Bible: honest weights and measures. On August 15, 1971 Nixon committed the crime of the century. That is where the problem began. I believe this is where it ends. I have tried to work to help it end
16. If you have read this far what I would say is be aware of what a difference you can make by educating others and spreading the word. I am an optimist. I think we can pass through this Fourth Turning without killing millions of people. I am sure many will say that is naive.
17. But, think about it. All of the assets are still here. We have not had a nuclear explosion. It is just that the money is bad. Fix the money. Fix the system. It is that simple. There is an incredibly bright future on the other side of this. But we are being tested first.
18. As my CrossFit coach says, good, a test, I GET to give 100% effort on something that really matters. Ain't it great to be alive! God bless all sound money advocates and pray for those who do not get it yet to achieve understanding. I hope you all have a peaceful holiday.
Watch the debt markets. They will be a big tell. Now they are catching a modest bid as an alternative to stocks. When rates start to rise again (as I believe they will) we will know that we are on the road to #Weimar
