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Simon Wardley #EEA @swardley
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
X : Should we brexit?
Me : Oh gosh. I'm in favour of WTO but happy to compromise at EEA docked to EFTA. But there is no point in having any discussion. Let Parliament decide and face electorate later.
X : Why Parliament?
Me : It's the only place where there is debate.
X : But the electorate is in favour of remain.
Me : The polls before the first referendum were in favour of remain. There is polarisation in the community, one side is all Van Valen - ...
... the other side is all Shakespear's Sister - ... you're not going to resolve anything with another referendum. Parliament must debate and decide.
... the debates in public are generally anything but rational from either side. The first referendum was bad enough, I don't see anything good from a second. There is no citizens' assembly here to help, Parliament is sovereign and it must show leadership - whichever way.
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Lunch and a quick scan of NHS long term plan - longtermplan.nhs.uk/publication/nh… ... page 6 (summary) and rapid expansion of "personal health budget" - england.nhs.uk/personal-healt… - aka full scale privatisation of NHS under the cover of giving patients choice. Bye Bye NHS, you'll be missed.
... not that we really have an NHS, it is more of a franchise. Anyway, personal choice is the way to kill it off and embrace a market led insurance model. First health, police next - "Then he swiped his credit card to pay me for arresting him" - newyorker.com/humor/daily-sh…
.. but let us not sweat the little stuff like health, society, cohesion but focus on big things like staying in the EU. As we all know, the EC will save us. I can hear Juncker on the phone to May saying "you can't continue privatising the NHS, the EC is going to stop you". Lol.
Read 11 tweets
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X : Predictions for 2019?
Me : Not my thing.
X : Go on.
Me : What are you after?
X : Acquisitions.
Me : Hmmm, a bucketload of tech acquisitions around Kubernetes. Expect big juicy deals.
X : It's the future?
Me : No. Mostly cash rich past giants with no future being clueless.
X : No market for Kubernetes?
Me : Some very profitable niches. Savvy tech buyer will wait until hype dries up before swooping in for tasty acquisitions around 2021-2022. This year will mainly be the clueless with big chequebooks. Hoping some friends will make it big this year.
X : The market doesn't operate to make your friends rich.
Me : Are you sure? It has been doing a good job of it - Cloud, Big Data, Containers ... it's always the same.
X : So, where is the future?
Me : I thought you were interested in acquisitions? They are not the same.
Read 10 tweets
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People's Vote march was attended by a third of number that organisers claimed, official estimate says - telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/… ... still 250,000 isn't a bad turn out.
I'm all for expressing desire and involvement in politics but I'm a tad unhappy that the #peoplesvote seems to attack Corbyn but rarely Tories, it seems to talk up an exodus from Labour and I'm not convinced it is representative of ordinary folk - beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/096411…
i.e. Roland Rudd, who turns out to be a very wealth public relations executive and brother of Amber, Conservative MP -
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_Ru… or Richard Reed, another multi millionaire but previously cited as a potential funder for a centrist party - theguardian.com/politics/2018/… ...
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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1) Again and again I’m struck by the chasm in thinking between leading MP’s on #Brexit and the viewpoint of EU leaders - and remember, if you want a deal, it takes two to tango
2) There is ZERO appetite or intention in EU circles to renegotiate this withdrawal deal
3) The EU would love the U.K. to remain a member of the club but if we’re leaving - then this is the divorce deal
Read 14 tweets
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1. We now know from the government's own no deal technical notices that most, if not all, of the no deal warnings have a basis in fact. The fact that Theresa May is not attempting to spin them tells it's own story... She knows no deal is not an option.

#Brexit thread
2. She therefore has to make concessions to reality that she has long been avoiding, which of course the Ultras will absolutely hate. They then have two options. Like it and lump it or topple the government. If they do the former then they lose all their power.
3. Should they do the latter they are then confronted with the same basic dilemmas. Their WTO option is a busted flush and they can't have their fantasy Canada deal and certainly not without conceding to the backstop. They face the identical dilemma to Mrs May.
Read 14 tweets
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Right. I'm ready to call it! The UK government is aiming for the #Brexit negotiations to lead to:

- A Norway deal
- A 'Norway' v '#Remain' referendum.

I'll show my working below!

#stopbrexit #peoplesvote
Why Norway?

Well, the answer to that lies on the island of #Ireland. Due to the GFA, there are not many ways of squaring the circle of having the hard border that is required by the WTO, Northern Ireland remaining in the UK and the UK being outside the customs union.
So the options faced by HMG are:

1 - call a border poll and let Northern Ireland and the Republic reunite as a single entity. While the Conservatives are nominally the Conservative & Unionist Party, there are many who would not share a tear at the loss of NI....
Read 12 tweets
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1. The biggest problem with the #Brexit is a failure to separate the issues from the personalities. The issues are more complex than the average pundit is capable of absorbing - especially when they inhabit the Westminster bubble. (thread)
2. What we find is that the level of EU understanding is pitiful even among the think tanks who are supposed to be on top of these matters. Worse still are the populist pudnits who bang the drum for Brexit but make zero effort to understand the process.
3. The Leave Alliance would be a lot more popular if we simply simply churned out pleasing populist messages but if we want to get the best from Brexit then we have to look at the situation as it is rather than how we would wish it to be.
Read 21 tweets
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1. The ultra brexiters are going all out for their WTO option #Brexit. They are gradually pushing the narrative that anything including a withdrawal agreement is a betrayal of Brexit and their thicko followers are buying it. This is dangerous.
2. As a Brexiter of long standing I know these players quite well. They are all indoctrinated in the ultra libertarian deregulation fantasies and the fact that just about every business group says they don't want deregulation it does not have any impact on their delusions.
3. As to their followers, these are the intellectually subnormal grunters who genuinely do think the Eu is a modern manifestation of the USSR. They're not well. Now don't get me wrong, I'm still a leaver but these people are fucking loony tunes.
Read 27 tweets
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1. As you can see the hard #Brexit turnips have their panties in a bunch this week. It would appear they are seeking to leverage the EU's backstop position into a whole UK solution. How many times do they need to be told that this is not going to happen? (Thread!)
2. The NI situation is somewhat unique and any settlement will be an exemption from all the norms of trade and if the EU isn't careful it could find itself open to legal challenges. Wouldn't be surprised if they need to negotiate WTO waivers to complete implementation.
3. What the EU is not going to do though is allow us to pick and choose from the single market. They couldn't have been any clearer than that. they won't compromise their system integrity even for those much vaunted German car makers.
Read 21 tweets

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