Thread by @swardley

X : Predictions for 2019?
Me : Not my thing.
X : Go on.
Me : What are you after?
X : Acquisitions.
Me : Hmmm, a bucketload of tech acquisitions around Kubernetes. Expect big juicy deals.
X : It's the future?
Me : No. Mostly cash rich past giants with no future being clueless.

X : No market for Kubernetes?
Me : Some very profitable niches. Savvy tech buyer will wait until hype dries up before swooping in for tasty acquisitions around 2021-2022. This year will mainly be the clueless with big chequebooks. Hoping some friends will make it big this year.

X : The market doesn't operate to make your friends rich.
Me : Are you sure? It has been doing a good job of it - Cloud, Big Data, Containers ... it's always the same.
X : So, where is the future?
Me : I thought you were interested in acquisitions? They are not the same.

X : So what should these "giants do" if they have cash? Is it not healthy to plow that back into the industry?
Me : Yes, buy my friends companies. Pay way over the odds to send positive market signals.
X : Will that help?
Me : My friends? Yes. I'm sure they will be delighted.

X : Will it help the giants?
Me : No.
X : What can the giants do?
Me : Make my friends rich.
X : I mean what can the giants do to improve their fortunes?
Me : Why do I care?

X : Because of your mapping work?
Me : You've lost me.
X : Don't you do strategy for others?
Me : No. I teach companies how to map. I don't do "strategy" for anyone ... well, bar a few good friends and bits of Gov. I'm not in that game, I like to research instead.

X : Kubernetes is hot then?
Me : That whole space. Kubernetes, containers and related DevOps type things are where big juicy acquisitions should be at.
X : Because companies are clueless?
Me : Yes. And also to make my friends rich.
X : Where is the future?
Me : Serverless.

X : If that's the case why not acquire in Serverless?
Me : Companies aren't big enough yet. Why buy the future today for $50 million when you can buy the exact same thing tomorrow for $2 billion.
X : The market doesn't work like that.
Me : Oh but it does -

X : That's rude.
Me : No, it's called inertia. There are many factors at play. When it comes to industrialisation of a space (cloud, serverless etc) ... the change is obvious but most have inertia to it and won't take it seriously until it's large, at which point it's too late.

... ask anyone with any experience of tech. There are countless examples of large companies having the opportunity to get in on an obvious change for $50 million but do nothing until the price tag for the same thing is $2 billion. It's why we have startups, VCs etc.