Inspired by this great thread by @CatherineDVries , I'll offer my own thread with some predictions about EU politics for 2019 - recognizing many of the same tensions as Prof. De Vries, but perhaps a bit more optimistic. 1/20
Populists (particularly on far right) will make gains in 2019 European Parliament elections, but they will remain in minority (and remain divided), so mainstream parties will still be able to run EU institutions. In short, the center will hold. 2/20
The other big factor that will destabilize Europarties is the entry of Macron's En Marche. They are cooperating with the liberals ( @ALDEgroup ) but would probably prefer to form a new group after the election. Much depends on how well they'll do (and polls aren't great). 4/20
Liberals will be crucial in another sense. They have figured out that the Spitzenkandidat process doesn't serve their interests as it will always hand Commission Presidency to @EPP. While ALDE + Macron will be small minority in EP, they are on equal footing w/ EPP in Council 5/20
So, they will try to block the Spitzenkandidat process in the Council. Either they will propose their own candidate (someone like @vestager ) or as a compromise some other EPP candidate they prefer (like @MichelBarnier ) 6/20
As I've explained here: euronews.com/2018/11/12/the… had @EPP chosen @alexstubb as their candidate, he would have had cross party backing & secured Presidency. However, they picked the #Autokratenkandidat @ManfredWeber who will likely be unacceptable to Liberals 7/20
I predict @ManfredWeber won't become Commission President. Though @EPP will win most seats, he'll be blocked in Council by leaders from parties who aren't as keen on Spitzenkandidat system & who can use Weber's long-time association with autocrats as excuse to block him 8/20
I hope I'm right about this, but I may be wrong. My previous work on "Europe's Authoritarian Equilibrium" foreignaffairs.com/articles/hunga… in fact suggests that Weber should succeed, but I have the feeling that this time @EPP may finally pay a price for selling out to autocrats. 9/20
Outcome of race for Presidency will be crucial for future of EU democracy, as I explain here euronews.com/2018/11/12/the… & below. If Weber is derailed, this would be 1st time a Europarty pays for coddling an autocrat; if he succeeds it will show that allying w/autocrats pays 10/20 
And how about the bigger picture of the EU's crises? It has been struggling with (at least) 5 intertwined, reinforcing crises which together I've labeled "Europe's perfect storm". In order of the threat they pose to the EU they are... 11/20
1.the rule of law crisis, 2. the refugee crisis, 3. the eurozone crisis, 4. the crisis of Russian aggression, 5. Brexit. None of these crises has gone away entirely and any could come roaring back.12/20
However, with the exception of the rule of law crisis which remains out of control (and spreading from HU & PL to Bulgaria and Romania), the others have abated to a degree and support for EU and euro are at highest levels in years 13/20
Brexit is an existential crisis for UK, but mostly an annoyance for EU - & EU has shown remarkable solidarity in response. Refugee policy remains unresolved (& immoral), but arrival numbers are down so it probably won't spark major crisis this year. wsj.com/articles/medit… 14/20
As for Eurozone crisis, Italy remains the most worrying state (right @Erik_Jones_SAIS & @SMerler ?), but it seems Salvini has stepped back from the brink in his budget battle w/ EU. Can the EU continue to 'fail forward' on Eurozone reform in 2019? journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117… 15/20
I wouldn't expect any big steps to completing banking union (would you @nicolas_veron ?), but nor do I expect a reemergence of a fully-fledged eurozone crisis this year. And how about the last crisis - that of Russian aggression/ attempts to divide and weaken the EU? 16/20
Undermining the EU remains a top strategic priority for Putin. He will continue to try to interfere w/democratic elections, to promote populist parties & to cultivate trojan horse regimes to divide EU from within onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.111… & atlanticcouncil.org/publications/r… 17/20
However, democratic leaders have wised up to his tactics (think of Macron's tactics repelling Russian cyber attacks in French election) and even populists are less explicitly anti-EU than they used to be (seeing that public doesn't support leaving EU). 18/20
Brexit was probably the high point for Putin in terms of undermining EU. His support for the Leave campaign (read @carolecadwalla ) was a remarkable strategic victory (as was his installation of Trump in the White House). But I doubt he can repeat anything on that scale. 19/20
In sum, i think the EU has mostly navigated its perfect storm of intersecting crises, and 2019 looks just a bit brighter. Perhaps once it gets past Brexit the EU can focus on more serious remaining problems like the attack on democracy and rule of law in some member states. 20/20
