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Annie Duke
@AnnieDuke
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
“In ... your ... life, you are forced to make daily trade-offs that ... expose you to luck which might not go your way. I have actually found this lesson quite liberating, because it forces me to worry only about what I can control.”

So much great stuff in @KivaDickinson post.
“I have a pretty strongly-held belief that when it comes to making life decisions, people think about risk the wrong way. In the world of finance, risk = uncertainty, or ... the width of the distribution of outcomes; in life risk has a very different meaning.”- @KivaDickinson 1/2
“Whether you’re deciding to change jobs, start a company, move to a new city or start a relationship, risk is not uncertainty but rather your exposure to bad outcomes.” - @KivaDickinson

I agree. Often when we say risk aversion I think we mean fear of a bad result. 2/2
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More from @AnnieDuke see all

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Annie Duke
@AnnieDuke
THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets
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Annie Duke
@AnnieDuke
Good article on lessons from the #NFLDraft on identifying talent, by @BCMassey, Wharton prof and cohost of @WMoneyball. Via @BehScientist.

1/3

behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identif…
Lesson #2, "Keep Your Judges Apart" -- implementation of disinterestedness. Quarantine others from your beliefs. Conflicts of are contagious. Don’t infect the people you are trying to get high fidelity opinions with your opinions.

2/3
Lesson #5: "Keep Score" – hold intuition accountable. Memorialize predictions and go back to evaluate their accuracy so you are accountable to your decision process.

3/3
Read 3 tweets

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ScottishPanda
@PandaScottish
[thread] on two politicians who have pointed out the con of brexit

No not Theresa May although she knows all the below and concurs with them

She knows all the crimes, lies, deceit, racism and 🇷🇺 interference

She *chooses* her path

I am going to quote each politician in turn

Then I will wrap up with photos of their words at end
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Kevin R. McClure
@kevinrmcclure
As someone who has attended, researched, and worked at Maryland, I keep wondering: how did we get here? I think it starts before Loh, when the university drastically elevated its aspirations. A brief timeline.
For me, the Maryland of today really started to take shape in 1998 when Dan Mote became president. At that time, Maryland was much more accessible, engaged in less research, and often didn't compare itself to major flagship universities. Mote changed all of that.
Using "excellence" as his guiding principle, Mote immediately set out the raise the bar Maryland used to judge itself. He wanted the university to see itself differently, as major research university. And he thought it was a problem that Maryland wasn't particularly selective.
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Phenomenal Adedayo
@dayus4heaven
Tonight promises to be great on #BreakingBarriers as I will be sharing insights on THE POWER OF FOCUS. You can't afford to miss this session.

Please RT.
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Julie Laumann 🌎
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
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oshBTC
@oshBTC
1/ It seems every #trader has to do the same mistakes as their predecessors. There are #wisdowms you will only understand, if you have experienced them yourself. In this thread I will give you the #wisdom, which can make the difference between being broke and driving lambos #btc
2/ Money is made in big swings

When realizing what profits can be made with trading, many start daytrading and want to #profit from every movement. You won't make more #money. Instead you will lose plenty of time. Watch big time frames and take positions for weeks #btc #trading
3/ When entering a #trade, have targets and a stop loss order

There is nothing more for you to do. There are two outcomes:

-you being stopped out
-you reaching your target

either is fine

realizing losses > being a bagholder
realized profits > unrealized profits

#btc #trading
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Srinath Raghavan
@srinathraghava3
Long thread prompted by @SushantSin report on basis of govt's claim that it has procured 36 Rafale fighters at a lower per unit price than that obtained by the UPA govt. Although the govt refused to disclose the details in Parliament, it is useful to have some of these out.(1/n)
Nub of MoD argument is while Rafale had originally bid per unit price of Euro 79 Mn, this "would have amounted in 2015 to Euro 100.85 mn" - owing to inbuilt cost escalation formula. By comparison, "price of each of the 'bare' 36 Rafale bought in 2016 was Euro 91.7 mn". (2/n)
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