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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
, 28 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
More real-life consequences of Brexit (to go with the 140+ I've posted previously) 1/26
1,000 police officers from England and Scotland being trained for redeployment to Northern Ireland in the event of a no deal Brexit.
standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
Aspen Insurance Group is planning to open a new insurance subsidiary in Dublin to service EEA clients after Brexit. It expects the new subsidiary to be operational by Q1, 2019. 2/26
aspeninsurance.co.uk/News-Items/Gro…
Toyota and Nissan, which currently certify their vehicles in the UK, are planning to apply for certifications in EU27 countries to ensure that UK-produced vehicles can still be sold in the EU after Brexit. 3/26
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Busin…
City lawfirm Lewis Silkin opened a new office in Dublin in April 2018, citing Brexit as a factor in the decision to set up in Ireland. 4/26
lex100.com/index.php/news…
The Hut is opening a facility in Wroclaw, Poland, to protect against potential trade hurdles. It is expected to employ 1,000 staff within 2 years, and will eventually handle the bulk of the company's EU orders (currently distributed from England). 5/26
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Indos, a curry house that had been turning over more than £400,000 a year, was forced to close because its EU staff left, and it simply couldn't source enough replacements. 6/26
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Aston Martin triggered its no deal contingency plans in the first week of January 2019, stating it has hired a new supply chain chief, altered the routes its parts take so as to use ports other than Dover, and authorised air freighting. 7/26
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
Brexit cut the number of City vacancies by 39% year-on-year as of November 2018, with just 4,005 vacancies available vs 6,600 in 2017. Hakan Enver, managing director at Morgan McKinley: "Brexit has taken a considerable bite out of banking jobs" 8/26
personneltoday.com/hr/brexit-take…
Almac Group invested £30 million in opening a new European campus in Dundalk, Ireland, so that it could continue to conduct clinical trial and drug certifications for EU clients after Brexit. (Its global HQ is in NI). 9/26
almacgroup.com/news/almac-gro…
The CEO of Brompton minced no words as he explained their "shit hits the fan planning" decision to spend £50,000 on hiring a warehouse to stockpile £1m of bike parts against a hard Brexit. 10/26
theguardian.com/business/2019/…
A new report by EY estimates that £800 billion in assets will shift out of London to other EU27 capitals, some 10% of all the money managed in the City. Around 2,000 new European jobs have been created too. 11/26
ey.com/uk/en/newsroom…
Central Pharma (headquartered in Bedfordshire) opened a base in Tralee, creating up to 100 new jobs. The Chief Executive, Alwyn Smit, said "Post Brexit, Ireland offers a stable environment from which to service our European customer base." 12/26
idaireland.com/newsroom/pharm…
Fashion retailer Joules is investing in warehouse space in Europe, and planning to bring items into its Corby warehouse a few weeks earlier than usual, to guard against Brexit disruption. 13/26
leicestermercury.co.uk/news/business/…
Norinchukin, a Japanese bank that is one of the 40 largest banks in the world, announced on 11 January 2019 that it is moving part of its operation to Amsterdam, citing Brexit as the reason. 14/26
nochubank.or.jp/en/news_releas…
In January 2019, it emerged that the Police are officially advising retailers to bring in extra security staff ahead of a no deal Brexit, so as to maintain crowd control if panic buying ensues. 15/26
politico.eu/article/uk-pol…
The Department of Health has spent £1 million on leasing space in refrigerated storage to stockpile medicines against a no deal Brexit. It is spending additional undisclosed amounts on ambient temperature storage facilities. 16/26
theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2018…
Airbus has so far spent €15 million on preparing for no deal, according to evidence that Katherine Bennett (Senior Vice-President, Airbus UK) gave to the BEIS Committee on 28 November 2018. 17/26
data.parliament.uk/writtenevidenc…
The Civil service has called for volunteers to help implement fuel rationing across 75 petrol stations in Northern Ireland in the event of no deal Brexit. 18/26
irishnews.com/news/northerni…
Plans have been drawn up to turn two sites in Anglesea into lorry parks to relieve the pressure on the port of Holyhead in the event of a no deal Brexit. 19/26
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
Brexit lorry jam photo op cost £60,000-£65,000, spent on: "cost to reimburse hauliers for operational costs, and reimbursement for site management costs incurred by the owners of Manston airfield". (Costs incurred by Police & KCC not included.) 20/26
theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2019…
Sales of British malting barley to EU brewers for delivery after Brexit Day are at a standstill, despite high demand, because it's impossible to know what market conditions will be like at the point the delivery contracts have to be fulfilled. 21/26
uk.reuters.com/article/us-bri…
Blue Seafood Company in Devon is taking the drastic step of flying crab all the way to Vietnam for packing, because not enough EU staff are available any more, and they have not been able to recruit enough local workers. 22/26
devonlive.com/news/devon-new…
Discovery Channel is applying for around 50 broadcast licenses in the Netherlands for channels that were previously licensed by the UK's Ofcom regulator. It is retaining 16 Ofcom licenses for channels broadcast in the UK. 23/26
digitaltveurope.com/2019/01/14/dis…
Hermes Investment Management is setting up a new office in Dublin as a post-Brexit base for its European clients, having been granted authorisation in December 2018 by the Central Bank of Ireland. It expects it to be up and running by 29 March. 24/26
portfolio-adviser.com/hermes-swipes-…
Caerphilly County Borough Council is establishing a £1 million contingency fund to deal with the potential impacts of Brexit. 25/26
caerphilly.observer/news/973359/ca…
London's 10 largest investment banks have spent over £1 billion collectively in Brexit preparations, with smaller firms seeing contingency costs in the £tens of millions each. 26/26
fnlondon.com/articles/citys…
And here's the original thread... 140+ factual, fully-sourced examples of the impact Brexit is already having on the UK. Jobs going, investment drying up, companies moving assets to the EU, or redomiciling.
Thanks for reading this far. Please RT and share widely if you think it merits a wider airing. (Note: in case you missed it, there's a link to 140+ more examples in the tweet just above this one in this thread.)
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More from @uk_domain_names see all

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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Completely idle speculation, but I wonder what would happen if say 325 Tories, Labour, LibDems and SNP got together and formed a grouping meant to create a Government of National Unity, but without including either TM or JC? Since no party has a majority in the HOC that would
seem at first glance to be as legitimate as both TM's government and JC's opposition. In other words, although it's never been done before of course, is there anything explicit to prevent third party attempts during the 14 days after a lost vote of no confidence?
Because at the moment there are plenty of people on both sides of the house who have more in common with each other on Brexit (the ONLY issue that matters right this second) than they do with either of their own front benches.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Ok, so Theresa May's almost certainly going to win the vote of no confidence, but even if she didn't it's not an automatic recipe for a GE.

There's a 14 day period in which the Government can try and reclaim the confidence of the House. That would seem virtually impossible, but
Brexit creates so many "firsts" it just might happen.

What if TM went over Jeremy Corbyn's head to Labour back benchers with this package:
- no deal immediately off the table
- A50 extension
- permanent custom's union
- guaranteed people's vote
- place at negotiating table
It would have to be in some legally binding form, if such were possible. I wonder if that carrot would be enough to persuade them that backing her in a new confidence vote (no limit to the number that can be held in the 14 days) is more likely to give them a Brexit they can live
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Time for a brief chat about an 8% hit to GDP, which is what is forecast under a no deal scenario.

You might think "Hmm, that means I will lose 8% of my income". Sounds bad, for sure, but potentially "survivable" (to use Liam Fox's expression from yesterday).
But it doesn't work like that. The pain's not evenly distributed. What happens in practice is some firms weather the storm just fine, maybe because they're in industries that aren't affected to the changing situation, aren't connected to the EU even at one- or two- removes, etc.
Other firms take a massive hit. The downturn of 2008/2009 represented about a 4% drop in GDP, and saw millions of people out of work and thousands and thousands of businesses go bankrupt. So imagine what twice that damage would look like.
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Right then

Let's have another bash at unpicking what's actually getting decided in #Brexit

1/
Listen to the radio or TV, read stuff online, and it's all 'Chequers this', 'no-deal that', 'Northern Ireland the other' and frankly it's confusing, not least because a lot of media are getting confused

2/
The way through this is to remember that there are several parts to 'Brexit', which are linked, but still distinct

3/
Read 14 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #StopArt50Clock #Backstop #KeepTheFaith #PeoplesVoteMarch #SingleMarket #bbcqt #FBPE #brexit #livestream #SWE #ProjectFear #Fraud #consumerprotection #NHS #DExEU #GDPR #timefortruths #border #FoodSafety #WindrushGeneration #Sue #peaceprocess #NoDeal #ITA

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