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The Labour amendment and the people's vote. A critical thread. 1/
Amid much fanfare, Labour unveiled its amendment yesterday. It will (I think) be voted on in the House of Commons next week. It attracted attention because it (finally, for some) seemed to take the People's Vote off the table, and bring it into play. 2/
The stated aim is to prevent the UK leaving the EU without a deal. To that end, it suggests that options 'should include' two things in particular. 3/
Note that it does not propose the one thing which really would take no deal off the table. Were Labour to suggest a switch in the default, from no deal to revoke, as suggested here, it would achieve that goal. 4/ spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2019/01/18/cha…
But no, it seems unwilling to declare a preference for revoke over no deal. (Incidentally, the Cooper amendment, which switches the default to 'extend' is also not fit for purpose; even if it passes, the threat of no deal remains.) 5/
Back to the motion. The first option is Labour's Brexit wishlist. It wants a renegotiated Brexit deal, which it would presumably support. It still talks of 'a' customs union, still talks of a 'close relationship with the single market', and is still vague on free movement. 6/
The relationship between option i) and option ii) is not made clear. My reading (and I may be wrong) is that if option i) succeeds, and Labour somehow gets the renegotiated Brexit deal it is seeking, it will back that deal, and not seek a PV. Do others agree? 7/
Option ii) then provides for legislation to provide for a public vote 'on a deal or a proposition which has commanded the support of the majority of the House'. This is where I begin to get more confused. 8/
If Labour does not get the Brexit deal it wants (as per option i), it would presumably vote against the deal in Parliament. We saw that last week with the vote on the WA. A deal rejected by Labour is very unlikely to get majority support in the House. 9/
And... if the deal fails to get majority support in the House, option ii) is not triggered. My thinking is that option ii) can only be triggered if the House, after rejecting a deal, were to agree to a proposition to put that (rejected) deal to a people's vote. 10/
That will involve some contortions from MPs - who will have to vote against a deal, and then vote in favour of a proposition giving the people the chance to approve or reject it. 11/
This is part of the reason why I have long been sceptical about the people's vote. See (from back in September) blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09… 12/
But, again with the caveat that I am not sure whether I am linking the two options in the right way, that seems to me to be what the amendment is saying. Either we get the deal we want; or if we can't we will put a proposition which has majority support to the people. 13/
The amendment thus does not address what seems the most likely outcome - that the new/old deal does not meet Labour's wishlist, and that it does not command majority support in the House. 14/
It relies (as, in fairness, the PV must) on there being a majority in the House for a proposition to put to the people - and in the event that there is no more credible Brexit deal, it is difficult to see how that majority will be constituted. 15/
So... all in all, this is not a particularly clear amendment, or, if I read it correctly, one which deals with likely circumstances in which there is no deal/proposition which commands support in the House. 16/
Thus, we lurch ever closer to no deal. Labour's policy would be better directed a) at stopping no deal; and b) at telling us what it would do if it becomes clear that there is no Brexit deal which commands support. 17/
My view has been that, in the event that there is no Brexit deal which commands sufficient support, the only answer is to revoke A50, pinning the blame on the failure of the Govt to find a good deal. blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12… 18/
But, it appears that Labour is a long way from this position. And so, unless a majority for the new/old deal emerges from somewhere, we are heading towards no deal... 19/19
Here is the thread that was brewing since I first saw the amendment yesterday: @GuitarMoog @JolyonMaugham @fascinatorfun @SpinningHugo @ThangamMP @YvetteCooperMP @Keir_Starmer
