Thread by @syrpis

Where do we turn to now? A Brexit thread. Some of my frustration with the state of the debate will, almost certainly, become apparent. 1/

We have 4 options.
1. Leave with no deal
2. Leave with the WA/PD rejected so decisively in Parliament this week
3. Leave with a different (to be determined) deal
4. Revoke A50 2/

We have 3 routes available to any of those outcomes.
a. Parliament makes the decision
b. A choice between 2 or more of the options is put to the people
c. We extend A50 (to prepare for 1 or 2, or to enable 3) 3/

Let's look a bit more closely.
1. Leave with no deal. This has little support in Parliament. A big majority of MPs reject it out of hand. It is inherently vague (presumably there will be some deals). It is, of course, the default. 4/

2. The WA took many months to negotiate with the EU. It is a flawed compromise, which offers little to Brexiters and little to remainers. It now looks very difficult to see how Parliament will support it.
For discussion, see: legalresearch.blogs.bris.ac.uk/2018/11/why-th… 5/

3. So... the search for a new deal is on. There are cross-party discussions (albeit not (yet) involving Jeremy Corbyn). There's discussion around the backstop, a permanent CU, membership of the SM. We know, or should know, what the various choices are. 6/

Any new agreement would be cobbled together in Parliament with unseemly haste (with the clock still ticking). Much of the argument so far misses the distinction between the WA and the PD. Much of the discussion ignores the EU - who will of course have to agree any new deal. 7/

There are suspicions that those who want no deal, and those who want remain, will not treat the search seriously. And there are suspicions that Labour (politically) will not and cannot be seen to back what will still be seen as Theresa May's deal. 8/

4. This may be seen as the ultimate 'betrayal of Brexit'. But... it is the UK's unilateral right. It preserves EU membership; and does not (cannot) preclude a fresh look at the UK's relationship with the EU. My call for it is here: blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12… 9/

In terms of the routes available...
Parliament has to decide - unless it passes responsibility to others.
Many seem to think that the Government's big defeat makes the case for a PV stronger. 10/

I disagree. Advocates for a PV have to be able to make the case that a new referendum gives the people a 'meaningful' choice. Unless a new deal emerges quickly, I do not see a leave option available for Parliament to offer to the people (presumably against remain). 11/

The deal has just been crushingly defeated. All leading Brexiters oppose it. And there are many good reasons not to put no deal on the ballot paper. Absent a new deal, there is nothing else. 12/

That brings me to extension. If the aim is to produce a new deal, an extension does indeed succeed in buying time. But... it needs EU-27 agreement, and any extension request will have to appeal to all EU leaders. See: theconversation.com/brexit-how-art… 13/

My view is that the EU will not agree to extend, unless the UK has a workable plan, which commands support in Parliament, and which can lead to a new WA/PD. I don't think we can extend, simply so that we have more time to decide what we want to do. 14/

So... back to the three options. 1 and 2 are not good options, and lack majority Parliamentary support in any event. 3 does not exist, and in all probability will not exist in a few weeks' time. 15/

Revoke would be the product of a huge political failure. Neither at the time of the referendum, nor prior to the triggering of A50, nor during TM's 'Brexit means Brexit' phase, have the nature of the Brexit choices been confronted. 16/

We are told that Brexit was going to be easy; that we held all the cards; that trade deals would fall into Liam Fox's lap. Opponents of Brexit were saboteurs and traitors. Expert analysis was project fear. 17/

It turns out that the Brexit TM has been able to deliver doesn't live up to the promises she and others made. That there is no concrete version of leave which has the appeal of the abstract leave of 2016. In some ways, hardly a surprise. 18/

Were we to revoke, the challenges would be immense (though arguably not quite as immense as if we were to leave, on 'sub-optimal' terms). Yet, there is the prospect that, if revoke is accompanied by reconsider, the divisions could begin to heal. 19/

The immediate question is what happens now. There is a need for a majority in Parliament to agree on something so as to avoid no deal. If the cross-party talks yield nothing, then the only option will be revoke. 20/20