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Today's @bopinion post is about shrinking opportunity for middle-skilled and non-college Americans, and why "Just move where the jobs are!" doesn't work anymore:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
David Autor recently gave a great presentation about this, which you can watch here:
aeaweb.org/webcasts/2019/…
aeaweb.org/webcasts/2019/…
Part of the story you already know: If you don't have a college degree, the U.S. labor market doesn't have many good opportunities for you anymore. 
But now here's another wrinkle: If you didn't go to college, moving to the city doesn't help your economic prospects like it used to.
Cities are still the land of opportunity for educated knowledge workers.
But not for manufacturing workers, office workers, service workers, etc.
So the educated people are increasingly moving to the cities and other people are increasingly staying out.
But not for manufacturing workers, office workers, service workers, etc.
So the educated people are increasingly moving to the cities and other people are increasingly staying out.
In fact, as @JedKolko has shown, economic prospects for the average worker are now often *better* outside of big cities, once you take local cost of living into account.
Here's an interactive map from the Hamilton Project that lets you explore wages adjusted for cost of living. Try playing around with it and seeing where the opportunity lies!
hamiltonproject.org/charts/where_w…
hamiltonproject.org/charts/where_w…
Why is this happening? Why are cities the land of opportunity for educated knowledge workers, but not for anyone else?
My explanation: As the U.S. has shifted from manufacturing to knowledge industries, clustering effects are overpowering agglomeration effects.
In other words, the whole REASON cities exist in America at all is changing.
In other words, the whole REASON cities exist in America at all is changing.
The most important book about this is "The New Geography of Jobs", which you should definitely read if you haven't: amazon.com/New-Geography-…
So what do we do about it?
Two ideas, which I've promoted heavily, are:
1) build more housing in big cities to bring living costs down
2) use research universities to revitalize small-town economies
Two ideas, which I've promoted heavily, are:
1) build more housing in big cities to bring living costs down
2) use research universities to revitalize small-town economies
But much of the solution will have to be national, not local. We've got to change the rules of our economy so that low-skilled service jobs are good jobs, like manufacturing and office work used to be.
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