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In 1999, the gubernatorial election in Lagos was as one sided as ever. Bola Tinubu (AD): 841k. Dapo Sarumi (PDP): 184k. Nosiru Kekere Ekun (APP): 122k votes. Asiwaju won 19/20 LGAs.
By 2003, AD didn’t have it easy at all. The incumbent faced a strong opposition candidate, supported by Abuja who wanted Lagos at all cost. Asiwaju polled 911k to defeat Funsho Williams who got 740k.
In 2007, BRF got 828k, while Koro got 389k despite running a fractured campaign after edging our Hilda Williams for the PDP ticket. JK got 114k while Femi Pedro got 30k. Cakewalk
2011. That one was a joke. BRF broke the 1m threshold and polled 1.5m votes to defeat Ade Dosunmu of PDP who got 300k votes. Still wonder where the 300k that voted Dosunmu are, want to sell them the lagoon if you know them.
2015, Ambode 812k and Agbaje 660k. That one was a nail biter. Abuja again made a strong play for JK, but it came to nought. First time votes also went along ethnic lines.
What does this tell you about 2019?APC hasn’t got less than 800k in an election. That’s the minimum an opposition candidate requires to stand a chance. Not a joking sturves.
PDP hasn’t got 800k in any election, despite being united behind its candidate and getting strong federal support in 2003 and 2015. In 2015, they also fielded strong legislative candidates.
That’s why it seems like only one person is running for office in Lagos State. Jide Sanwoolu is aiming for BRF’s record, and the way his teams are mobilizing, it’s very achievable.
He’s been able to eliminate the perception that he can be defeated. Once that’s done, the opponent’s funding dries up. So 2019 will be a repeat of BRF v Dosunmu - A dull coronation, not an exciting election.
Last tweet. Those results are a testament to how excitable BRF was. Still remember the day his campaign broke. You think Sanwo has posters around Lagos? Lol. 2003 was probably worse. Plus gift of the gab.
All that K’osi Koro, k’osibo went into the dumpsite. BRF beat him even in Lagos Island. Wicked people say he had to be put on bed rest when the vote count was done. Politics is brutal.
That’s why I didn’t mind BOG taking the limelight at the debate. He’s only eating into one man’s vote, and it’s not BOS. If JKA gets 500k in this election, I’ll eat cold eba without soup.
Anyway, that’s all folks. When someone starts an election at 800k, it can end up being really ugly. Sanwo will do 1m minimum, but if he tops BRF’s 1.5m, his campaign will be a template for holding territory.
