1/thread
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Viewed from Brussels the Brady votes doesn’t send an “emphatic message”. It’s just the same old mess. /2
Hardline ERG want to ‘bin the backstop’ - which will not happen.
The point is the vote conceals a mess. /3
May lost by 230 votes last time. She will argue Brady shows she’s closing the gap...but to EU eyes that’s only by pandering rightwards and promising unicorns.
If the did give her something most of ERG would reject. Certainly enough to scupper deal. /4
As EU source tell me, she needs a “stable majority” not a “freak one”.
Her problem is that if she tries to argue all this is a “step in the right direction” the EU have little grounds to believe. /5
All of which means? /6
As one EU dip says “why confront something painful when it’s such a long way off?” /7
Then the emphasis will (again) be on clarifying the PD. /8
Unless there is movement in Westminster it’s hard to see how it moves. Or why the EU would give May something doomed to fail (and have her come back for more).
No. Talk, sure, but wait and watch I suspect will be the game. /10