Thread by @pmdfoster

Lots of fuss about tweets today from @MartinSelmayr @Mina_Andreeva but MUCH more important is tweets from @WeyandSabine killing tech fixes.

That's a big mistake. Here's why 1/Thread

@MartinSelmayr @Mina_Andreeva @WeyandSabine To recap, over the week @WeyandSabine intervened to say that "technology fixes" won't work any time soon. /2

https://twitter.com/WeyandSabine/status/1092102169422192640

@MartinSelmayr @Mina_Andreeva @WeyandSabine And then, she retweets a report of @simoncoveney saying that tech fixes won't work - "they haven't stood up to scrutiny" which is just-about-polite speak for unicorns. /3

https://twitter.com/yourmeps/status/1092420766455513088

@MartinSelmayr @Mina_Andreeva @WeyandSabine @simoncoveney This would appear to be in direct contradiction to the assurances given letters by @eucopresident @JunckerEU to @theresa_may on Jan 14 which specifically expand on the Irish protocol to promise that "facilitative technologies" will be considered /4

@MartinSelmayr @Mina_Andreeva @WeyandSabine @simoncoveney @eucopresident @JunckerEU @theresa_may So why does this matter given that experts and commentators (including me) have been saying for ages that this is the reality?

That UK has a choice between

a) Customs Union + alignment to minimise GB-NI 'gap' on regs

b) October deal/border in Irish Sea. /5

@MartinSelmayr @Mina_Andreeva @WeyandSabine @simoncoveney @eucopresident @JunckerEU @theresa_may Because come the 'witching hour' when a deal gets done, the *possibility* technological fixes on the Irish border may yet still prove important politically...to remove them is reckless in my view. Because... /6

@MartinSelmayr @Mina_Andreeva @WeyandSabine @simoncoveney @eucopresident @JunckerEU @theresa_may Imagine a world where the choice for the ERG is

- May's deal
- A Deal with labour that includes Permanent CU
- Revocation of A50
- General Election or People's vote.

Then, at five to midnight, a lot of ERG types could be looking for excuse to back May's deal... /7

This might especially be so if - as has been reported by multiple sources - they have a figleaf concession on the backstop.

(Say a long sunset clause; more clarity on the circumstances of exit, even a time-limit somewhere in mid 2020s.)

Then, at that point... /8

The *possibility* of interrogating tech fixes explicitly promised by Juncker/Tusk may yet come back as crucial for justifying the decision to accept the deal.

It might be a flimsy flotation device, but any piece of driftwood will do in a storm. /9

The Malthouse Compromise is clearly non-viable (as I've explained at length here)

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

But in seeking to kill its most fundamental misconceptions, @WeyandSabine looks like she just made the endgame that much harder for @theresa_may /10

@WeyandSabine @theresa_may Perhaps the EU is now shifting tack and they no longer want to play the game.

Perhaps its a straight choice between Customs Union + alignment and the 'de-dramatised border in the Irish Sea.

Ms Weyand, much more high profile of late, seems to have decided so /11

@WeyandSabine @theresa_may In which case we are in a new phase.

The choice implicit in Mrs May's deal (a customs union in the absence of tech unicorn) is now made explicit.

On whose say-so is not clear. Perhaps the offer in the May-Juncker letter no longer stands? /12

@WeyandSabine @theresa_may Or perhaps the Malthouse nonsense and the continued failure of the UK side to come up with workable proposals has finally caused @WeyandSabine to lose her cool.

I have sympathy with that, tbh, but I'm not at all sure it gets us closer to a deal. In fact, on the contrary/13ENDS