THREAD: Some thoughts about Brexit, and whether Leave voters really did know what they were voting for. /1
With Brexit crumbling into pieces as the government struggles to agree a path forward on the Irish border and a customs partnership (as so many warned would happen), now is a good time to examine how the current situation reflects Leave voters’ expectations when they voted. /2
It’s a common refrain seen on Twitter. Leave voters angrily greet any sign of compromise with a cry of “we know what we voted for”. Here are a few examples just from the last month. /3 
There we see the expectation clearly expressed that voting Leave meant leaving “all institutions of the EU”. Here’s one which is so desperate to leave that they actually WANT “no deal”. /4
And here’s a particularly pleasant voter personally attacking Nicholas Soames because they believe he’s not doing exactly “what we voted for”. /5
So that seems pretty clear. According to many Leave voters, leaving the EU as stated on the ballot paper, explicitly meant leaving the single market, customs union, free movement of people, the whole deal. /6
Except, when you look closer it’s not quite that simple. Let’s focus on the single market first. /7
Here’s Nigel Farage getting quite irate a number of times since the referendum because he believes the government might not leave the single market. It’s pretty clear that he thinks that was part of what Leave voters voted for. /8
And yet, here are a number of Leave voters who tweeted BEFORE the referendum to say that we won’t necessarily leave the single market. /9
These two could not be clearer. “We won’t leave the single market”. /10
Curious. However, perhaps these voters were confused. Maybe they’re the outliers who didn’t understand that “leave means leave”. I’m sure Leave voting MPs all agreed that the vote meant we leave all EU institutions. Here’s Nadine Dorries days after the vote. /11
Hmm. That’s strange. She’s proposing the Norway model and also expecting “free movement for work”. I can’t imagine that pleases the “we know what we voted for” brigade. Oh well, let’s look at the element which is causing Theresa May problems right now. The Irish border. /12
There wasn’t a great deal of debate before the referendum about the Irish border. But when it was discussed, most people realised there was not a simple solution. /13
However, actually expressing this opinion was condemned as Remain scaremongering. Here’s a Leave voter doing just that. /14
And yet some high profile Remain campaigners acknowledged the likely difficulties. Here’s Theresa May declaring that Irish border controls would be “inevitable”, just two days before the referendum. irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i… /15
The key quotes in that article: “It is inconceivable that a vote for Brexit would not have a negative impact on the North/South Border, bringing cost and disruption to trade and to people’s lives”… /16
…and: “Put simply, Northern Ireland outside the EU could not prevent free movement and continue with an open North/South Border.” /17
These statements contrast somewhat with the wishy-washy options she’s proposing now. As you are probably aware, Boris Johnson has criticised Theresa May’s preferred option as “crazy”. theguardian.com/politics/2018/… /18
Notably, in that article he is quoted as saying: “It only solves the Northern Ireland border question if you force companies to prove that an imported tariff-reduced good has been consumed in the UK and if you insist on complete regulatory alignment with the EU rule book” /19
He then goes on to say: “Otherwise if Britain chose to vary its laws in any way at all on goods and agrifood, then logically you would need checks at the border.” /20
Boris prefers the “max fac” or “maximum facilitation” option, which is just as complicated (and highly unrealistic). However, from these quotes it’s clear that he realises the situation is complex and difficult. /21
Odd, then, that in February 2016, months before the referendum, he claimed that Brexit would not affect the Irish border! bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe… /22
Of particular note is the line: “He told the BBC a Brexit would leave arrangements on the Irish border "absolutely unchanged".” Well, which is it Boris? You're not saying Brexit is far more complicated than you told voters, are you? /23
And lastly, here’s a particularly insightful Leave voter who solved the Irish border problem before the referendum. /24
So, nearly two years after the referendum, and well over a year into the self-imposed Article 50 negotiation period, who exactly are these people who “know what we voted for”? /END
