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1/ Imagine the Republic of Ireland had decided to leave the EU rather than the UK
2/ The UK would demand ROI pays its liabilities as part of the exit process and would be clear article 50 does not require a binding agreement on the future relationship to be reached
3/ The UK would be telling ROI that if it’s redlines are being out of the SM, the CU and not subject to the ECJ then that limits what deal ROI can get
4/ After all why should 27 member states change their rules for a member state that is leaving
5/ Imagine if the ROI asked for the EU to rollover all the EU’s trade deals so treating ROI as if it was still an EU member for an 18 month transition? Would the UK agree?
6/ Imagine the ROI insisted that no deal was better than a bad deal and the UK asked how that solve the GFA?
7/ Imagine if the ROI said the Irish border issue was a “confected” issue?
8/ Imagine if the ROI Government had sent a leaflet to every home as to the consequences of leaving the EU but without once mentioning the GFA
9/ Imagine if the ROI had issues its article 50 notice threatening a lack of security cooperation if it did not get a good deal
10/ Imagine if the ROI had no plan as to what it wanted but accused the EU and UK of a lack of respect while also telling the Eu to go whistle
11/ Imagine if no deal was done whether the UK would choose not to apply border controls as required by the WTO?
12/ Imagine if to avoid all the chaos the UK said well you can change mind and stay?
13/ Imagine if the ROI declines that offer and chose not to stay in the SM and a CU and that led to a hard border
14/ Imagine the GFA unraveled and it led to a return of violence? Would the UK say it is the UK at fault or would it say it flows from choices made by the ROI Government?
15/ Imagine if ROI representatives said the only solution would be for the UK to leave the EU. How would the UK react?
16/ Imagine if the ROI Government published a list of no deal notices to cover its arse while the UK Government offered financial and other support to those affected by no deal?
17/ Imagine if the ROI used EU citizens as “bargaining chips” and called them “citizens of nowhere”. What message would that send to the EU and the world?
18/ Imagine if the ROI kept saying that it will become “Global Ireland”?
19/ Imagine if ROI’s original decision to leave was riddled with breaches of electoral law and Russian interference? Imagine if Russian “tourists” started using Novichok in Cork on a “day out”
20/ Imagine if the ROI turned motorways into lorry parks and started stockpiling food and medicine
21/ Imagine if the ROI developed Project Gool to ship supplies in?
22/ Imagine if all flights between the ROI and the EU were at risk of being grounded
23/ Imagine if the ROI and the EU agreed a joint report about how to prevent a hard border and the ROI passed an act of Parliament withdrawing from the EU which included a legal commitment like this
24/ Imagine if the ROI turned round and said we did not understand the report and were duped?
25/ What do you think the UK position would be?
26/ and then imagine Ireland asked to amend the GFA? 😳
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