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Michael Mauboussin
@mjmauboussin
, 14 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Tonight I start my course @Columbia_Biz. This is my 27th consecutive year teaching Security Analysis and a good time to take stock of what has changed and what has stayed the same over the years www8.gsb.columbia.edu/courses/mba/20…
2/What's different - concept of market as a complex adaptive system which I learned @sfiscience e-m-h.org/Maub02.pdf Incorporates ideas of why markets are hard to beat but far from perfect
3/The discussion of competitive strategy was mostly Michael Porter, but have added material from Bruce Greenwald, Clay Christensen, Brian Arthur, Pankaj Ghemawat, and Fred Reichheld. amazon.com/Competition-De… amazon.com/Innovators-Dil… amazon.com/Strategy-Busin… amazon.com/Loyalty-Effect…
4/ Also have much better data on base rates, which can help calibrate expectations research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
5/ And better data on capital allocation
research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
6/ Lots more on decision making: Kahneman and Tversky, etc. Max Bazerman's book is great for an introduction amazon.com/Judgment-Manag… amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-…
7/ And we allocate time to how to present effectively
amazon.com/Pitch-Perfect-…
8/ What hasn't changed? Value = the present value of future free cash flow
9/Multiples have inherent limitations. You should earn your right to use a multiple by demonstrating your grasp its economic implications
bluemountaincapital.com/wp-content/upl…
10/Stock prices embed expectations about future financial performance. Your job is to separate expectations and fundamentals
expectationsinvesting.com valuewalk.com/2016/09/steven…
11/Markets are imperfect terpconnect.umd.edu/~wermers/faj.v…
12/ It's good to have lots of mental models
fs.blog/mental-models/
13/ Value investing makes a lot of sense - if you define value as buying something for less than what it's worth. Cheap may or may not convey value
regie-energie.qc.ca/audiences/3630…
14/ And luck is a big deal!
wired.com/2012/11/luck-a…
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More from @mjmauboussin see all

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Michael Mauboussin
@mjmauboussin
1/Spent some time with some of the books on these shelves this weekend. There are some great ones...
2/Phil Mirowski's book, More Heat than Light, is 30 years old but still fascinating. A complementary read to @ole_b_peters work on ergodicityeconomics.com. "the progenitors of neoclassical economic theory boldly copied the reigning physical theories in the 1870s."
3/David Warsh's book, Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations, is also great. In my notes, I wrote down four ways in which we refer to "increasing returns" in economics
Read 7 tweets
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Michael Mauboussin
@mjmauboussin
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned Jeff Friedman's book, War and Chance.
It's about uncertainty in international politics, but has a lot of application to thinking about businesses and investing. Some thoughts:
amazon.com/War-Chance-Ass…
2/Two quotes from early on:
“…analysts avoid assessing uncertainty in a manner that supports sound decision making" and “analysts cannot speak about the future without engaging in some form of probabilistic reasoning.”
3/Common mistakes:
1.Use words of estimative probability instead of probabilities themselves;
2.Discuss relative probability – probability assessment that conveys an analyst’s beliefs with respect to an unspecified baseline;
Read 16 tweets
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Michael Mauboussin
@mjmauboussin
1/A quick comment on Buffett and buybacks. The comment in today's letter, "Blindly buying an overpriced stock is value destructive," is not incorrect but it is incomplete
2/Here's the way to think about it
3/The first point is that value is conserved. If a company is worth $100,000 and it pays out $20,000, the new value of the company is $80,000 and $20,000 is now out in the world
Read 7 tweets

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CtrlSec
@CtrlSec
📊#Time for monthly #stats

Good news! #ISIS activity on @Twitter decreased again in June: 7 195 new 🎯That's 12% less compared to May.
Again, 88% of these accounts were hacked: old, inactive, weakly protected.
They could easily be frozen in bulk. 😐

Thanks everyone!
#opiceisis
📊Time for monthly #stats

In average, we found 240 new #ISIS accounts per day in #June2019 (May: 263). Always the same guys, coming back again and again, spreading mostly the same propaganda month after month.
A bunch of losers...

#opiceisis
📊Time for monthly #stats

Less good news now. With 6 903 suspensions for 7 195🎯, the outcome (96%) slightly dropped again, by 1%.
@TwitterSupport provided a lower service this month for #ISIS accounts removals, both in terms of quantity...

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ꜱ ᴋ ʏ ᴅ ᴡ ᴇ ʟ ʟ ᴇ ʀ 💫 💜💙💚💛🍑❤
@Pamacious
Take a good look. Remember this little, wrong-headed worm.
THIS is who I want you to see when your healthcare choices are questioned: these little worms who think their magic sperm is seed to be sown where and as they please, like a cat spraying his territory.
1/
This is the man who calls his wife "mother." The poolboy-fiddling purveyor of hate and suppression by "education." The father of an animal torturer and a sick, downtrodden sycophant who serves at the pleasure of the rapist in chief.
2/
Will you let this man stand in between your doctor and you? Slow-kill your children & you through healthcare, food, and shelter denial?

Do you think a worm who rapes kids will step aside if you ask politely? Have they EVER?

1970: time.com/4008060/women-…
#WomensHistoryMonth
3/
Read 23 tweets
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livetweeter, I barely know her
@shutupnochi
Morgana's gender is Car
LET ME WATCH MY DVD MORGANA
Me when I do literally anything
Read 888 tweets
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Charlotte Swan
@CharlotteOU812
Are the Australian Adult Industry Awards rigged?
A thread.
On Wednesday night the Australian Adult Industry Awards were held. A function that claims to recognise the best in our industry. And on Thursday the usual complaints began that the awards are rigged.
Let’s take a look
Full disclosure here.

I was nominated for 4 awards. I didn’t nominate myself for any of these awards although you can nominate yourself. Nominations for Alpha and Industry Ambassador really took me by surprise. I didn’t win.
I’m not bitter in the least.
It’s really true what they say. It’s an honour that someone nominated me. I feel touched that whoever did thought I deserve some recognition. That was very nice of you whoever you are, thank you.
I had fun that night, many people there did.
Read 48 tweets
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Tessa
@ClacesShadow
Damon gets the sudden urge to check to phone and demands Katherine give it back to him. YESSS READ YOUR DAMN MESSAGES. Its like he got this feeling something wasn't right
"You are going to get yourself killed. The Damon I remember wouldn't have been that stupid."
"I wouldn't have done it for you."
AAGSHD he will risk to life for Elena. We all been knew. But truthfully, he would have for Kat too. He did and he died in 1864.
He wouldn't do it for Katherine NOW, obviously.
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Sandra Newman
@sannewman
1. My first best friend, when I was 6, was a boy named Steven Wu. Steven's Mom was an acupuncturist, and one day after we dropped Steven off, my Dad told me acupuncture was against the law. My first experience of perceiving crime as glamourous.
2. When I was 11 years old, my father bought a CB radio. My CB handle was "Timber Wolf".
Read 153 tweets

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