Thread by @ezralevin

Ok let's talk about why the filibuster must die. McConnell's diatribe against HR 1 shows the GOP will block everything if they can. Democracy, GND, M4A, gun regs - the next Dem president's agenda will be killed with 41 votes.

So how do Dems get to 60 votes? Let's dream a little:

2020: Rosiest possible scenario is a 5 seat net gain for Senate Dems. This would require holding AL (!), and picking up 5 of these: ME, CO, AZ, IA, NC, and GA. Not super likely, but we're just dreaming here. That puts Dems up to 52 Senate votes in 2021. GOP blocks everything...

2022: The new Dem President defies odds and gains Senate seats in the midterms! The "easiest" (ha!) pickups are OH, WI, PA, IA, NC, GA, & FL (Rubio!). Let's say Dems get 4 of em and lose 0 of their own. That's 56 Senate votes in 2023. GOP blocks everything...

2024: The new Dem President won re-election! Hurray! Unfortunately, 2024 is a rough senate map. FL, MO, and TX (all Dem losses in 2018) are the best bets. Let's say it's a sweep, and yet again, Dems lose 0 of their own. That's 59 senate votes in 2025. GOP blocks everything...

2026: Wahoo! Dems win yet another midterm election! Seems bonkers, but hey this is a dream, remember? Maybe they pick up KS or a remaining seat in GA, IA, or NC that they missed in 2020. That'll give them 60 or 61 seats in 2027. So we win now? Not so fast...

The above scenario assumes 0 Dem losses (unlikely). It assumes 4 consecutive Dem electoral sweeps (basically inconceivable). It assumes Dem wins in TX, OH, FL, NC, GA, IA, MO + more (!). And it assumes those Dems will then vote unanimously for big progressive reforms (good luck!)

If 2027 seems like a long time to wait for crucial reforms, you might want to sit down. In 1890, a bill to provide oversight of southern elections to prevent black voter suppression was filibustered. The reform was blocked for 75 years until the Voting Rights Act passed in 1965.

And of course while we wait for 2027 or 2047 or 2067, our planet is dying, inequality is skyrocketing, and democracy is crumbling. If this is depressing you, I've got good news: there is a better way. AX THE DAMN FILIBUSTER. Here's the alternate scenario if we do:

2020: Dems take that optimistic 4 or 5 seats. They have the Presidency, the House, and the Senate. The Senate axes the filibuster with a simple majority vote. Congress then passes popular progressive legislation and the president signs it into law. Wouldn't that be nice?

McConnell weakened the filibuster to get his way - 2 Supreme Court justices. But so far, 0 Dem presidential contenders are on the record for axing the filibuster. Many are talking about big progressive plans. All are empty promises while the filibuster lives.

So by all means, ask for democracy reforms, M4A, GND, and other big things you'd like your presidential favorites to embrace. But also ask them if they support axing the filibuster. If not, I've got a bridge to sell you and can send you my venmo info. /end

(Wonky side note: "But what about reconciliation??" Yeah, we could do some stuff like taxes through reconciliation. But you're not getting democracy reform, immigration, m4a, a full-fledged GND, gun regs, and other big reforms through reconciliation. It doesn't work that way).

(Philosophical side note: "But won't the GOP do bad stuff when THEY have the Senate?" Yep. But we win when government responds to the people, not when there's mutually assured destruction. When Dems ax the filibuster, they should enact HR 1 & then some - entrench people's power).