Thread by @Chxta

The timing of Nnamdi Kanu's reappearance from the land of the dead, and his call for an election boycott, is decidedly convenient.

So we have to ask, is he partnering the Buhari FG? bit.ly/2MPYApI

On 12 October, 2018, Atiku Abubakar, picked Peter Obi, to be his running mate in the 2019 general elections.

Exactly a week after Peter Obi was picked, the infamous separatist, Nnamdi Kanu, resurfaced, having been missing for over a year up to that point.

Not long after, Kanu returned to his mic, to resume what made him infamous in the first place - spilling a lot of bile.

His most recent exercise was to schedule a "referendum on Biafra" same day as the Presidential Elections, and that, is where the cat waltzed out of the bag.

A referendum, is a direct vote on a single issue.

So, in this case, the question on the ballot for Igbos would be - "Should Igbo land opt out of Nigeria and form a sovereign country called Biafra?"

For me, the answer is no.

I suspect that it's mostly no for the large Igbo diaspora within #Nigeria. For those outside of Nigeria, well, it largely depends on their station in life.

Be that as it may, let us go back Mr. Kanu and his call.

The last referendum held in the area around what is now Nigeria, was in 1961.

The call for that particular referendum started in 1953 after Zik displaced Eyo Ita in the Eastern Nigerian Parliament made the Eastern minorities unhappy.

Emmanuel Endeley, the leader of the Southern Cameroons, wanted to remain with Nigeria, but when he lost to John Foncha in 1959, Foncha asked @UN to organise a referendum on if Southern Cameroons would join Cameroon, or remain with Nigeria. Independence was not one of the options.

What is the point of this story - a referendum, or plebiscite, is not, and has never been, in all of human history, something that a "Supreme Leader" just declares three weeks to date.

It takes planning, help, and multilateral support.

Is there any evidence of all this?

In my line of work, one thing I've learned is that in #Nigeria, any conspiracy theory you hear, is worth examining.

The day after Kanu resurfaced, I was told by someone who should know that he'd been in custody, and had been released following the emergence of Peter Obi.

Chap claimed that Kanu's parents are still in custody, to ensure that he behaves himself.

He went on to say a lot of other stuff that even now, I find incredible, not least because I don't believe our security services are competent enough to pull off those kinds of operations.

However, it strikes me that as of this moment, Nnamdi Kanu's parents are still missing, and he has not said a thing about them in any of his broadcasts, but he spoke about his dog in one.

It also strikes me that there is a convergence of interests here - as I have written before, Nnamdi Kanu was given a massive boost by the Buhari government following their bad handling of his return to Nigeria. bit.ly/2DRKi57

He would have remained in a fringe figure shouting into his mic had they not arrested him some years ago.

It is in his interest that Buhari remains in office. It gives him a lightning rod with which to generate relevance, and that relevance helps him commercially.

Does it not strike you as strange that a man on trial for treason has resurfaced in other countries, and yet our government has not bothered to request his extradition (even if it is denied?).

Convergence of interests.

On the one hand, the chap who needs this government in order to remain relevant.

On the other hand, a government who needs this chap in order to ensure voter apathy in a region they are sure to lose.