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Interesting day in Brussels with @CommonsEUexit meeting M Selmayr, G Verhofstadt & others. A few thoughts as train delayed...
Near zero appetite around Brussels for reopening Withdrawal Agreement. Support for Backstop and Irish Gov v solid. For EU, it's not just a question of Good Friday Agreement. Concerns over an open backdoor into single market.
Real exasperation & frustration about what EU says were contradictory votes by MPs. Do not regard Brady amendment majority as stable. Little sign that the amendment has created a new dynamic in Brussels thus far
Our committee did an effective job in demonstrating to our guests the spread of views in the Commons and lack of consensus on way forward.
Unlike the Withdrawal Agreement, we heard repeatedly that there is scope for reopening text of Political Declaration to provide greater clarity & certainty on the new relationship rather than vague aspirations and optionality.
"A more ambitious political declaration" is key phrase. Backstop won't disappear from WA however. But a PD that pivots to closer longterm UK-EU relationship will solve a lot of the perceived problem.
Even if (big if) some eventual movement on WA to provide greater comfort and build trust, unlikely to be enough to get through Commons.
Regarding Malthouse Compromise, no one seriously entertaining this yet it seems.
Lots of discussion about potential delay to Brexit. But big question is for what purpose. They want more than just more process. Need clear path forward and that requires a stable Commons majority for a deal.
No great revelations today. Difficult few weeks ahead I suspect as we go round the mountain again with little sign of a way forward.
I still think the original deal or something v similar is most likely outcome compared to other current options. But will be very late in day and under a cloud of pol and econ crisis.
