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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
That Mirotic trade is a BIG deal. Bucks' chances of winning the title almost double, up to 14% from 8% pre-trade. 53eig.ht/2DfrU4M
The Raptors picking up Marc Gasol is an equally big move, re-establishing Toronto and Milwaukee as co-favorites in the East, and also giving them a puncher's chance against Golden State in the Finals. 53eig.ht/2En8Fdc
This has been a rough week for Boston, which has arguably* gone from the best rotation in the East to the 4th-best, and which now probably faces a very tough road series vs. MIL or TOR in the 2nd round.

* Our projections already had Toronto No. 1, but you could argue the point.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
About 25 percent of Bernie's voters were #NeverHillary in 2016. Now they have a lot more choices. Can he win without them? (Spoiler: yes, but his coalition is likely to look different.) 53eig.ht/2DVDW3q
Of the states Sanders won last time, 8 were because of #NeverHillary voters. In the more conservative states in particular (e.g. Indiana and West Virginia) he may not replicate that success this time around.
Contrary to the stereotype, the #NeverHillary voters were largely *not* leftist voters who thought Clinton was too conservative. They were mostly moderate and conservative Democrats, or independents and Republicans who chose to vote in the Democratic primary.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If college basketball wants to save itself, it seems like you could design a system where players get drafted by NBA teams at age 18 but can take a "gap year" where they play in college for a year or two in and also get big payouts in the event of injury.
e.g. the Hawks draft R.J. Barrett out of high school. They can opt to delay his NBA debut for 1 year in exchange for paying him half his rookie-scale salary for that year. During the gap year, he can play in college, the G League, internationally, work with a trainer, whatever.
Maybe you can add 2nd, 3rd, etc. gap years too, but they'd require mutual agreement by the team and the player. Or maybe you automatically get a 2nd gap year for non-lottery picks. There are a lot details, but in the abstract it seems workable.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Feel like the conventional wisdom is tilted ever-so-slightly toward underrating the chance a moderate will win the Democratic primary just because not many of the moderates have declared yet, whereas the progressives have. (Yeah, I know the progressive/moderate line is blurry.)
I'm also pretty interested in Sherrod Brown, who could straddle the progressive/moderate line maybe better than anyone else.
TBH my views remain boringly similar to PredictIt. I'd be tempted to say Bernie is a little overrated but: (1) that fundraising is pretty impressive; (2) dynamics of a divided field could help him; (3) Warren isn't off to a great start. bit.ly/2S3Huqg
Read 3 tweets

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Year One: 81 major Trump achievements, 11 Obama legacy items repealed:

Jobs and the economy

•Passage of the tax reform bill providing $5.5 billion in cuts & repealing the Obamacare mandate.

•Increase of the GDP above 3 %.

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