Thread by @jedshug

SCOTUS blocks Louisiana anti-abortion law 5-4, b/c Whole Women's Health is controlling precedent (for now).
Kavanaugh's dissent is remarkable: there are 5 votes to overturn Whole Women's Health.
This is bad news for Roe.
cc: @SenatorCollins 1/
documentcloud.org/documents/5732…

2/ Roberts dissented in Whole Women's Health. He voted with the majority today deferring to that precedent at this initial stage (application for stay), but if this case were decided on the merits, there is little reason to think he would switch sides to overturn Whole Women's...

3/ But meanwhile, Kavanaugh is so fired up to restrict abortion rights - and proclaim that to the world - that he ignores Whole Women's Health as precedent here and dissents *on his own.*
(3 other conservatives dissented, but did not write or sign onto Kavanaugh's).

4/ So what does this mean?
In Whole Women's Health, Texas had adopted bad faith regulations designed to shut down abortion providers. Texas intended such onerous regulations to make Roe a dead letter and de facto abolish abortion.
Roberts would have let those regs stand.

5/ Now Kavanaugh just revealed he is considerably to the right of Roberts on this question. He cannot wait to uphold those restrictions. There are clearly four votes to grant cert on an abortion case like this and overturn Whole Women's Health. (Kavauagh, Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch).

6/ The question is Roberts. I think Roberts would have preferred to hold off on these cases, but it is now clear that he won't be able to.
And when push comes to shove, Roberts is simply not going to rely on stare decisis to reverse his vote.
Whole Women is less than 3 yrs old.

7/ @Dahlialithwick and I read Kavanaugh's opinions and major speeches. We knew this was coming. But we all did.
Right, @SenatorCollins?
slate.com/news-and-polit…

8/ It does not surprise me at all that Kavanaugh is a vote against abortion rights.
But I am struck by how aggressively he's coming out swinging after just 4 months on the bench, after his partisan horror show of a confirmation.
This is very bad news.

9/ If we thought there was a chance Kavanaugh would hang onto Roberts, moderate himself to preserve the legitimacy of the Court, delay a sharp swing to the right, and hold off calls to reform SCOTUS in 2021...
right now, it looks like we were wrong.

10/ So now Kavanaugh has revealed himself to be aggressively conservative but also aggressively activist in disregarding Supreme Court precedent, what's next after Roe?
I suggested that he'd massively expand presidential powers, based on his past opinions: slate.com/news-and-polit…

11/ I meant to say:
Roberts voted with the majority deferring to Whole Women's Health as precedent, but only at this initial stage.
If/when this case is decided on the merits, Roberts would go back to his original vote against abortion access in Whole Women's.