Thread by @zenjournalist

EXCLUSIVE—Here's the inside story of what led to the bombshell events in Thailand last Friday, based on information from sources in King Vajiralongkorn's entourage in Munich plus sources close to exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Raksa Chart party.

1/11

In what Bloomberg calls "one of the most dramatic days in Thai history", the king's sister Ubolratana was nominated as Thai Raksa Chart's candidate for PM, only for the king to issue a statement just hours later calling her candidacy inappropriate goo.gl/NQrZaHm

2/11

When news emerged that Thai Raksa Chart would nominate Ubolratana, it seemed inconceivable that she and Thaksin would take such a provocative step unless they were certain that the king was fully aware of the plan and approved it.

3/11

Yet it now appears that Thaksin and Ubolratana never had a green light from Vajiralongkorn in the first place. This was an extraordinary strategic blunder by Thaksin, who once again has wildly miscalculated, due to his eagerness to defeat his enemies and return to Thailand.

4/11

Ubolratana has been close to her brother Vajiralongkorn throughout their lives. She has also had close ties with Thaksin for nearly two decades. Thaksin and Ubolratana meet regularly when both are in London, and were photographed together at the World Cup in Russia in 2018.

5/11

According to several sources, relations between Ubolratana and Vajiralongkorn cooled since the death of their father King Bhumibol in 2016.

6/11

Ubolratana asked Vajiralongkorn to restore her royal titles, which were removed in 1972 when she married a foreigner. He refused to grant her request. He also berated her after the World Cup photographs with Thaksin and Yingluck circulated online.

7/11

Angry and upset by her brother's behaviour, Ubolratana hatched the plan to get nominated as prime minister by one of Thaksin's proxy political parties. The plan was discussed over several months in meetings and phone conversations between Thaksin and Ubolratana.

8/11

But according to sources close to Thaksin and Thai Raksa Chart, they never got a green light from Vajiralongkorn.

9/11

They assumed that Ubolratana would deal with her brother and get his consent. They also believed that even without the king's explicit approval, once she was nominated as candidate the king would not actively prevent her standing.

10/11

These were extraordinary assumptions to make. By taking it for granted that Ubolratana had get Vajiralongkorn on board, and that nobody would dare block her standing for prime minister, Thaksin made a disastrous mistake.

11/11