Thread by @zenjournalist

ANALYSIS—In the aftermath of the extraordinary events of Friday, which further polarized Thailand and threw the March 24 election process into chaos, one of the biggest unknowns is: how could this have happened?

Here are the possible scenarios:

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1. THE KING WAS NOT CONSULTED IN ADVANCE

The statement released by the king on Friday evening gave the impression that he had not been consulted in advance by Princess Ubolratana or Thaksin Shinawatra and he was implacably opposed to the deal.

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It would be extraordinary if Ubolratana and Thaksin 32had pressed ahead with the Thai Raksa Chart nomination of Ubolratana as its candidate for prime minister unless they were certain that Vajiralongkorn was aware of the plan and approved it.

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Vajiralongkorn has always been close to his sister and she is one of the few people who can contact him easily without the need for elaborate royal protocol.

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Negotiations over the deal had been going on for months. By early last week it was clear it would go ahead, and I reported the news last Wednesday. If Vajiralongkorn was opposed to the deal he had plenty of time to shut it down before Ubolratana was nominated. But he didn't

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2. THE KING CHANGED HIS MIND

Vajiralongkorn is a notoriously volatile and mercurial character. In the leaked US diplomatic cable 09BANGKOK2967, ambassador Eric John noted that he has been "long known for violent and unpredictable mood swings". wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/0…

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Rupert Christiansen, who knew him at boarding school in England, says he was unpredictable even as a boy: "Mahidol could suddenly drop his pretence of amiable normality and become a vile bully: indeed, his behaviour might now be described as bipolar. telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-m…

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Over recent years, Vajiralongkorn has exhibited some bizarre behaviour. He has been seen and photographed several times around Munich cycling while semi-undressed or wearing a tight crop-top and low-slung jeans with his body plastered with fake tattoos.

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Several sources who know him also say Vajiralongkorn desperately craves the reverence and respect of the Thai people, and is deeply bitter that while his father was widely beloved, he is not. He has resented his sister Sirindhorn's popularity for decades.

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It's possible that when the king saw the reaction to the deal, which horrified royalists but was welcomed by many Thais, he flew into one of his notorious rages, furious to see that Ubolratana is much more popular than he is.

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As Paul Chambers says in an analysis on New Mandala: "Her prospective selection as prime minister prior to the king’s own official coronation in May might have even been viewed in some royal quarters as upstaging him." newmandala.org/a-rebuke-again…

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Although it would seem extraordinary that the king would destroy a carefully negotiated deal just because of a sudden bout of rage, this is not inconsistent with his character.

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Alternatively, was he persuaded by people he trusts that he should reverse the decision? The plan to nominate Ubolratana that most of the royalist elite, even those who are very well-connected, were taken completely by surprise.

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After the announcement, did they rush to contact Vajiralongkorn and convince him that if the plan went ahead there would be chaos in Thailand and the monarchy would be in danger? It’s possible.

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3. THE KING WAS FORCED TO DO IT

The announcement of Ubolratana's PM candidacy was greeted with horror and dismay by Thailand's royalist elite and yellow Bangkok middle class. The political plans of dictator Prayut Chan-ocha and his allies seemed to be in ruins.

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Did powerful figures in Thailand who are implacably opposed to Thaksin threaten or blackmail Vajiralongkorn to force him to back down and withdraw his approval of the deal?

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It's highly improbable that he could have been physically threatened — the king is currently in Munich, surrounded by his closest aides.

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Did the Eastern Tigers clique of Prayut Chan-ocha and his cronies threaten to launch another coup to prevent the deal? Again, highly improbable. Even if they dared to issue such a threat, which is extremely unlikely, the king would not have been intimidated.

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Vajiralongkorn has direct command of a large and expanding military force, the Royal Guard Command, and the army commander-in-chief Apirat Kongsompong is regarded as unswervingly loyal to him. He could crush any coup attempt by the Eastern Tigers.

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More plausible is the possibility that powerful elite royalist figures pressured him to change his mind, perhaps blackmailing him with the threat of exposing damaging information about him. There is no shortage of material that the king could be blackmailed with.

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His enemies have leaked damaging material before, most notoriously a video of former wife Srirasmi's birthday party in 2001 where she was mostly naked and ate birthday cake while prostrating on the floor alongside the royal poodle Foo Foo (RIP). vimeo.com/101336844

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But who in Thailand would be brave enough to attempt this, and powerful enough to get away with it? One lesson of Vajiralongkorn's reign so far is that nobody is safe from his wrath if they cross him. Several people in his circle have been murdered on his orders.

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Others have been sent to Thaweewattana punishment camp or a secret prison also located in the palace complex. Even elite figures like the Watcharothai family have not been safe from humiliation and punishment.

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It would be extraordinary if somebody had taken the extreme risk of directly threatening the king.

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4. IT WAS A TRAP

Thaksin has been led into a trap by the royalist elite several times before. Former premier and privy council head Prem Tinsulanonda was a master at tricking Thaksin.

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Thaksin was repeatedly convinced that King Bhumibol approved of his plans, only for everything to suddenly collapse. This happened with the 2006 snap election, and most notoriously with the 2013 Amnesty Bill fiasco. medium.com/zenjournalist/…

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Did Prayut and the junta lay a trap for Thaksin with Vajiralongkorn's help, by making him think he had palace approval to nominate Ubolratana, so they could then unravel the deal?

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If there are moves to ban Pheu Thai and Thai Raksa Chart ahead of the election, or renewed efforts to condemn Thaksin for meddling in politics, this scenario becomes more plausible.

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But it remains unlikely. Friday's events were highly damaging for the reputation of the king and the monarchy. Also, Vajiralongkorn ended up publicly humiliating his own sister, who he has a close relationship with.

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It's improbable he would have agreed to this plan just for the sake of helping pro-junta parties win the election so Prayut can stay on as prime minister.

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5. SOMETHING ELSE

The strangeness of Friday's events suggest there may be another explanation we are not yet aware of. The picture may get clearer in coming days and weeks, as the fallout from the political bombshell settles.

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Any other theories or scenarios out there? Let me know!

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