,
4 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
1/ This chart may help to appreciate how ludicrous it is to suggest that there’s “no recession on the horizon” even looking years ahead. The fact is that there's an extremely short gap between a joint rollover in economic and financial confidence, and the start of a recession. 
2/ The consumer confidence spread between future expectations and present situation fell to a record low last month. Typically, recessions begin once the broad consumer confidence index drops about 20 points below its 12-month average. Not there yet, but worth watching.
3/ Our own Recession Warning Composite isn't yet indicating an imminent recession here, but fairly modest weakness in a few measures could change that. To avoid false signals, the criteria here are a bit tighter than I used to anticipate oncoming recessions in 2000 and 2007.
Corrected chart (h/t the keen eyed @TaviCosta). Previous chart reflected different but highly correlated University of Michigan consumer expectations. Same profile, but the Conference Board figures aren't quite at a new low.
